dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eastern "weaker" eyewall is almost to Sanibel Island. Have to watch for friction dragging the core closer to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Lizard Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, terdferguson said: My Uncle lives in port Charlotte on the water. He has been in the eye of hurricane Camille (pass Christian, Ms), eye of Charley, and now Ian. He stayed. Suggest that he write his SSN on his arm with a Marks-A-Lot. This is not in any way meant to be humor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9am video for anyone interested. I certainly didn't expect this type of storm. One for the ages for SW Florida no doubt. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdnFILp2Ur0 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement. I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Water is regularly washing of the end of the pier. Insane surge already with wave action on top of it. Going to be a long, long day for the W coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, NYC10023 said: They’re not grew up down there and *everyone* I’ve talked to is staying Its gonna be bad for Tampa to Fort Myers south, if anyone stays at this point its on them, this storm was pretty well forecasted and surge was predicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement. That cannot possibly be good new for Tampa or Fort Myers, for Tampa it makes the northern eyewall get dangerously close or hit them and for Myers it just increases the already bonkers surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I have been watching this live and numerous people have been going out on that pier with their phones held high to take pics/selfies. smh. Just saw several do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Please keep the banter in the proper thread 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement. Yes, almost due N movement with a tick east from time to time. Maybe the frictional effects will drag the center or at least eyewall onshore. But that Venice to Punta Gorda area is in huge trouble. Maybe Sarasota if it keeps the due N movement. I wonder if St Pete will have problems later with the N/NE reverse storm surge? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast. I'm factoring in the SSE to NNW coast orientation to say that 15 miles west of that forecast from 11 PM, should it hold through landfall, would mean a lot more than 15 miles further NNW up the coast for landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement. Every deviation also changes who gets the excessive rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 144kt flight level wind on the latest vortex data message 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recent gust to 63 mph at St. James City (Davis network). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 144kt flight level wind on the latest vortex data message What does that translate to in surface winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281358 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Based on current trends - just my opinion but I'm targeting the area near Englewood or just south of there for landfall. Irrelevant for most things except wind direction and max surge values. Barrier islands from Captiva up to Englewood area are going to get hit very hard. Anybody who stayed on those barrier islands better be in a WELL constructed structure on pilings of 12' or more. Area from Charlotte Harbor to Ft. Myers and associated canals etc. need to brace for at least 12' of storm surge and perhaps more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 NE eyewall getting really close to Captiva. Conditions probably going way downhill there. We’ll see soon if that “frictional drag in” theory rings true for SW FL and it turns more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: What does that translate to in surface winds? 165mph 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hits that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye still looks great on radar, and still plenty of lightning too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Better to utilize Old Port Tampa Bay gauge for "Tampa area" https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=tbw&gage=optf1 Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hours that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so Sounds like hyperbole, but an apt metaphor is a tsunami. Nature abhors a vacuum. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chuck said: Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected? Irma pulled the bay WAY out of Tampa in 2017 but little to no big surge followed as the storm went in too far south...so not always a prelude to something bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Eye still looks great on radar, and still plenty of lightning too. Seeing a bit of a move east recently and the eastern eyewall look a little healthier probably helped by friction. This is about to go WAY downhill from Captiva on north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, msuwx said: I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late. The go bag is to take with them when national guard rescues them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chuck said: Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected? The water would only really come back in like a surge if the wind switches direction to piling the water back in. Unfortunately for places like Charlotte Harbor, that’s where that mound of water is going, along with wherever the east eyewall hits. Tampa will still have a lot of problems from the 20” rain that might be falling there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 165mph whoa. have we got any official confirmation of cat 5 surface winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Would imagine water will be rising quickly over the next several hours in Charlotte Harbor as south to southeast winds will be piling a ton of water into there. Boca Grande could be hit hard with surge as water piles in and eventually rushes back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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