MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 First visible of the day! Surge is going to be horrific near and to the right of exact landfall. Feel bad for folks on the barrier islands from Boca Grande down towards Sanibel. Also for Fort Myers area. Some extremely expensive real estate built to high standards but we might just be about to find out how it withstands an extreme storm surge and near record winds and low pressures for that part of Florida. Even if Ian has peaked or is peaking now the surge is built up and is going to get shoved onto the coast. Bad situation. Satellite and radar extremely impressive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Recon has found a central pressure of 933.1 mb, so Ian continues to flex and is still deepening folks near Ft Myers better hope the cane stays on the water longer and comes in North of them. Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Wonder what happened with the recon? They were about to do a S to N pass and turned around it seems Could they just be delaying a bit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. Mostly new development so hopefully able to withstand these winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 IR presentation looks a hair better now than an hour ago, the eye is still filled in but looks a bit more symmetrical, though it might not fully clear out on visible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 For Tampa Bay, besides the severe flooding, is the risk that the water gets pushed out by the north east winds on the western side of the storm and then surges back in the Tampa Bay as the storm passes to the north east and they get strong southwesterly winds on the south western side of the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. Myers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Mostly new development so hopefully able to withstand these winds. The slow movement might increase the impact of the winds but the fact so much property is a few feet above sea level is what’s going to be really devastating in these places. Entire towns are literally built around canals in these places, and they’ll be under 15 feet of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The slow movement might increase the impact of the winds but the fact so much property is a few feet above sea level is what’s going to be really devastating in these places. Entire towns are literally built around canals in these places, and they’ll be under 15 feet of water. Cape Coral was designed this way, it is 3 feet above sea level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The slow movement might increase the impact of the winds but the fact so much property is a few feet above sea level is what’s going to be really devastating in these places. Entire towns are literally built around canals in these places, and they’ll be under 15 feet of water. Nothing but canals and houses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. This reminds me of Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. MyersIt is on track to go north of Ft. Myers. Port Charlotte gets the 12-16 ft surge. Tampa Bay gets the western eyewall with 150mph winds. Everything in between gets the eye.. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Webcam from Clearwater https://www.beta.myclearwater.com/Visit-the-Beach/Live-Video-of-Clearwater-Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, AChilders said: Nothing but canals and houses. Yep-wow. They’re in trouble. Hopefully for them it ticks left. Guess the hordes moving to FL in the last 15 years have to go somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep-wow. They’re in trouble. Hopefully for them it ticks left. Guess the hordes moving to FL in the last 15 years have to go somewhere. As long as they're SE of the eye they're getting the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Unreal... Eye should continue to clear with such strong subsidence. Did not expect the eyewall to get so intense this morning. GLM flashes are booming with the hot tower. Horrible timing is an understatement. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye finally clearing for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The spokes around the eyewall indicate continued strengthening to me. I don't see any reason for it to cease until landfall. It's imbedded within this full latitude trough, so the shear is simply enhancing it's UL outflow. The eyewall looks solid to withstand the dry air. Going to be a sad day for Florida. May be the most costly cane in their history. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 AM update still 937mb/155 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boiler1111 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Traffic cams for Manatee/Sarasota counties. https://www.smarttrafficinfo.org 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 From 9 AM update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye continues to clear. Nothing short of spectacular at the worse possible time. So similar to Charley (only much larger) in the hours prior to landfall. Surge near and to the right of landfall will be devastating. Per latest from TPC: Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following locations: * From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft * Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft The 12-18' foot forecast areas are no joke and life threatening is not an exaggeration. Bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: Eye continues to clear. Nothing short of spectacular at the worse possible time. So similar to Charley (only much larger) in the hours prior to landfall. Surge and near and to the right of landfall will be devastating. Per latest from TPC: Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following locations: * From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft * Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft The 12-18' foot forecast areas are no joke and life threatening is not an exaggeration. Bad. Should be noted too that those surge heights are WITHOUT waves added on top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Should be noted too that those surge heights are WITHOUT waves added on top. And tides... next high tide in Cape Coral is just after 6 p.m. -> https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/florida/cape-coral-bridge-fl/tides/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 It's going to be interesting to see if Ian tries to fight off going onto land. A losing battle of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I’m heading to bed, but the last thing I want to mention is the longevity at which hurricane force winds will be felt from this storm from the coast to the central portion of the state. Damage from prolonged winds of that magnitude tend to be worse than a typical hit and run. The vegetation in that area of FL will be altered for years to come, and salt water inundation will cripple tree root systems to the point where they’ll have to be rehabbed back to life. This happened in the Lower FL Keys with Irma. It’ll be the same for the coastal locales running from Bonita Springs up to Englewood. Brutal 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I hope anyone in Cape Coral is gone. That area is going to be 15ft+ under water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ian vs Charley size comparison (by Justin Michaels at Twitter). 22 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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