Hurricane Ian

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 

Impressive but not the surface level

[Amped]

T7.2 if anyone cares. Same as Micheal.

[Superstorm93]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 

 

Three things. 

1. Not at the surface 

2. Those are considered gusts in almost all instances now

3. "Only" 132 knots in the lowest 150m

[jconsor]

15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX

Very interesting, @turtlehurricane!   Do you have any published papers (either by yourself or others) that you can share on the topic you mentioned - frictional convergence near the coast feeding high vorticity into the eyewall and amplifying the vortex?  Thanks.

A quick Google scholar search yielded two papers from the 1990s, one on Hurricane Andrew and one on Irene which hit S FL in 1999:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/77/3/1520-0477_1996_077_0543_haifdo_2_0_co_2.xml

https://www.iweathernet.com/print/irene-1999.pdf
(Easier to read version at https://www.iweathernet.com/tropical/hurricane-irene-1999-intensification-and-downbursts-after-landfall)

Here is a more recent one I found:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300499
 

[WxWatcher007]

Latest VDM from recon

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86W
B. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center

[ice1972]

Are the wind velocity radar products measuring speed component away/toward the radar site?

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM from recon

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 10:55Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 10:23:12Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 82.86W
B. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the SW (227°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 19kts (From the NE at 22mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:09Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 160kts (From the NNE at 184.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix at 10:13:02Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 10:41:21Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 139kts (From the SSE at 160.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 10:40:39Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,452m (8,045ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 160kts (~ 184.1mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center at 10:13:02Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) from the flight level center

If it doesn't reach category 5 (hopefully a little dry air can disrupt the core), this will be a great candidate for a post review category 5.

[jrips27]

 

[Amped]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Are the wind velocity radar products measuring speed component away/toward the radar site?

The radar sites are pretty far away so only measuring winds well aloft.   This also means there's no NWS radar site to wreck for once.

[WinterWolf]

Andrew type damage incoming for the landfall area. It’s gonna be nasty! 

[mob1]

Now that is a big boy core 

[TPAwx]

6z GFS has landfall between Englewood and Venice around 5PM.

Surprised to see the slight north jog overnight, impressive intensification to Cat 5.

Got the family 20 miles north of Tampa yesterday.  Light to mod rain here and breeze is picking up.  

 

[olafminesaw]

Thank goodness for recon. This certainly doesn't look any stronger than a low end cat 4 on satellite 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[AnthonyEC]

20 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Eye looks clear. Cold cloud tops popping up in the SE quadrant.

Maybe a 2nd ERC? 

[Amped]

Got 4-6 hours until the outer eyewall starts to clip sanibel island.  Center makes landfall between 18 and 21z.

[hawkeye_wx]

Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago.  Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit.  Perhaps Ian has reached its max.

[CoastalWx]

Well, needless to say this continues to humble  me. Just tip my cap and call Mother Nature  my daddy

[BYG Jacob]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago.  Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit.  Perhaps Ian has peaked.

Just give it a bit for a fresh convective burst to start rotating 

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago.  Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit.  Perhaps Ian has reached its max.

Lightning still plentiful on RadarScope. 

[jm1220]

Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow. 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago.  Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit.  Perhaps Ian has reached its max.

Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit

[MattPetrulli]

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit

Really doesn’t matter now, damage has been done. Whether it stays 155mph or weakens to 130mph, or perhaps 110mph, the surge event is going to be catastrophic. Too late in my opinion

[BYG Jacob]

Eye has contracted to 20 nm since the onset of the ERC yesterday. Ian won’t be a borderline category 5 for long.

[Crocodile23]

WOW. 387 kA

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, BYG Jacob said:

Eye has contracted to 20 nm since the onset of the ERC yesterday. Ian won’t be a borderline category 5 for long.

It contracted earlier between 2am and 4am before this RI process

[Rtd208]

http://Check out their stream - live! https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/surge

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[jconsor]

Ian's western eyewall appears to be nearly as strong as the eastern eyewall!  Here are Andy and my explanations for why this may be the case.  Hurricanes Michael and Delta saw a similar pattern.