hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 137 kts SFMR in the west quad ("weak" side)..... major yikes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 At a loss for words. 101130 2551N 08312W 7509 02191 9665 +146 +137 013124 129 120 052 00 101200 2551N 08310W 7516 02153 9628 +144 +138 015135 139 126 044 00 101230 2551N 08309W 7521 02107 9592 +147 +142 016136 140 133 046 00 101300 2551N 08307W 7518 02082 9557 +151 +145 022148 160 137 042 00 101330 2551N 08306W 7558 02024 9534 +155 +149 022150 158 137 042 00 101400 2551N 08304W 7573 01993 9516 +160 +155 026143 149 134 037 00 101430 2550N 08303W 7553 02000 9493 +166 +153 027133 143 134 031 00 101500 2550N 08301W 7516 01999 9461 +175 +156 028111 130 131 027 00 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 137 kts SFMR in the west quad ("weak" side)..... major yikes.Cat 5, and still strengthening . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Superstorm93 said: At a loss for words. 101130 2551N 08312W 7509 02191 9665 +146 +137 013124 129 120 052 00 101200 2551N 08310W 7516 02153 9628 +144 +138 015135 139 126 044 00 101230 2551N 08309W 7521 02107 9592 +147 +142 016136 140 133 046 00 101300 2551N 08307W 7518 02082 9557 +151 +145 022148 160 137 042 00 101330 2551N 08306W 7558 02024 9534 +155 +149 022150 158 137 042 00 101400 2551N 08304W 7573 01993 9516 +160 +155 026143 149 134 037 00 101430 2550N 08303W 7553 02000 9493 +166 +153 027133 143 134 031 00 101500 2550N 08301W 7516 01999 9461 +175 +156 028111 130 131 027 00 Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 We starting to get close to the time where minor jogs will depend who gets the SE eyewall. Looking at Sanibel and Cape Coral in particular. Regardless though, Ian has a large core and it going to effect a large area of populated real estate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 We starting to get close to the time where minor jogs will depend who gets the SE eyewall. Looking at Sanibel and Cape Coral in particular. Regardless though, Ian has a large core and it going to effect a large area of populated real estate.On current trajectory it would be more like Venice to Bradenton. Tampa Bay gets Western eye (which is bad with 155 mph winds) and Port Charlotte gets surge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Gentle reminder that we have a banter thread. and try to add more than "wow cat 5" to your posts. 11 4 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment. Yeah looking "weak" on that side on radar too. Seems to be becoming more uniform as we speak though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The other plane just found 130 kts flight level, 111 kts SFMR on the "strong" east side, so the west side is stronger at the moment. Not too surprised at that. West eyewall is more impressive on BR and IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye really tightening up now. This needs to get on shore soon. Cat 5 not sure, but high end 4 seems likely now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 155 MPH at 6:35 Update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 617 WTNT64 KNHC 281036 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 635 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 635 AM EDT...1035 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.73 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 155 MPH at 6:35 Update please include the text/link next time. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to the tweet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Second plane just found 143 kts flight level, 137 kts SFMR on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: As I stated earlier, I am not surprised. I did my PHD work on this exact thing. Vorticity-rich air from the coastline/land is feeding into the eyewall. The amount of vorticity generated as hurricane winds collide with land is enormous, and this is tilted up in the eyewall, creating super-charged vortical convective towers. Plus all this happened right at DMAX Thank you sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 MB drop in about an hour and a half Oh yeah the near category 5 winds also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye looks to finally clear out in the past hour or two from ir view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 There are several analog hurricanes which hit SW FL from the S/SSW. The most similar ones are Charley and especially the infamous Oct 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane. The Oct 1944 storm was similar in size to Ian and much larger than Charley, and hit as a category 3 with pressure of 949 mb. The similarity of the Oct 1944 hurricane to Ian is quite concerning for the insurance industry in FL, which is already reeling from the recent loss of numerous insurance providers. If the Oct 1944 'cane were to hit today it be expected to cause direct economic losses (damage) of around $80 billion - adjusting for per-capita wealth and population increases as well inflation! See the tweet below for methodology for calculating normalized losses from past hurricanes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The EWRC came at the worst time yesterday. You could see this coming. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 139 kts flight level, 101 kts SFMR in the ene eyewall, the weakest part on radar, so the numbers makes sense. 937 mb, officially, per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye looks clear. Cold cloud tops popping up in the SE quadrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I thought with the ERC completed last night that intensification would occur, but this is truly extraordinary. There were some signals for intensification near landfall from the hurricane models, most notably HAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 162 knot wind picked up on this dropsonde 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Surge upped to 12-16 ft on new advisory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, jconsor said: There are several analog hurricanes which hit SW FL from the S/SSW. The most similar ones are Charley and especially the infamous Oct 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane. The Oct 1944 storm was similar in size to Ian and much larger than Charley, and hit as a category 3 with pressure of 949 mb. The similarity of the Oct 1944 hurricane to Ian is quite concerning for the insurance industry in FL, which is already reeling from the recent loss of numerous insurance providers. If the Oct 1944 'cane were to hit today it be expected to cause direct economic losses (damage) of around $80 billion - adjusting for per-capita wealth and population increases as well inflation! See the tweet below for methodology for calculating normalized losses from past hurricanes. Being in the industry, the people will suffer too. So many policies dont have wind/hail coverage or have wind/hail deductibles of 5%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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