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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

REALLY trying to clear the eye, curious about how much more intensification occurs before landfall in about 6ish hours imo. Also meso vortices evident on radar/satellite. That SE side of landfall is likely going to be a very populated area regardless of due east wobbles and will receive one hell of a surge. Awful man.

Also seems to be slowing down just a little bit. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He looks pretty good. Considering what it was last night, I’m surprised it made it to cat 4. Figured it would be steady state. 

Went from EWRC to going gang busters without a hitch. Def not always the case historically. Going to be a beast of burden up until landfall. Thankfully my parents got the heck out of dodge (Up near Sarasota). 

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One of the remarkable things to me is how well the intensification we are seeing unfold right now was shown on models like the HWRF, HMON and the globals. They've been showing this rapid deepening leading up to landfall for many of the model runs once this track more toward SW FL locked in.

 

Edit: next 6-12 hours before landfall on models suggest this is the peak and going forward will be either steady state or slight weakening before landfall.

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1 minute ago, jconsor said:

Great point here by Brian.  Though Ian's intensity and track leading up to landfall is very similar to Charley, Ian is much larger than Charley! This will lead to a higher storm surge and much larger area impacted by destructive storm surge and winds.

 

My family road through Charley in 2004 in Punta Gorda (when they thought it was going to Tampa), they actually were able to go out in the eye... they were spared the storm surge that some feared.

I'm very very concerned this time for the region. No longer have family ties to the area, but it's a beautiful place up and down that coast.

I really hope people are prepared for this... Ian looks like it will be the new storm that sets the bar for this region, and Charley was already devestating. Prayers to everyone in SWFL. 

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Lot of lightning all over the eyewall in the last hour. Truly a stunning scene on satellite and radar.
 
We’re on a terrible run right now of Gulf storms intensifying before landfall. Prayers for SW Florida. 

Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era.
Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise


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