MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: REALLY trying to clear the eye, curious about how much more intensification occurs before landfall in about 6ish hours imo. Also meso vortices evident on radar/satellite. That SE side of landfall is likely going to be a very populated area regardless of due east wobbles and will receive one hell of a surge. Awful man. Also seems to be slowing down just a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Morning visible satellite should be a stunner. Ian sure is living up to the 'I' storm reputation so far. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like it’s heading N; when is the right turn projected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He looks pretty good. Considering what it was last night, I’m surprised it made it to cat 4. Figured it would be steady state. Went from EWRC to going gang busters without a hitch. Def not always the case historically. Going to be a beast of burden up until landfall. Thankfully my parents got the heck out of dodge (Up near Sarasota). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Went from EWRC to going gang busters without a hitch. Def not always the case historically. Going to be a beast of burden up until landfall. Thankfully my parents got the heck out of dodge (Up near Sarasota). Gulf storm gonna gulf storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 One of the remarkable things to me is how well the intensification we are seeing unfold right now was shown on models like the HWRF, HMON and the globals. They've been showing this rapid deepening leading up to landfall for many of the model runs once this track more toward SW FL locked in. Edit: next 6-12 hours before landfall on models suggest this is the peak and going forward will be either steady state or slight weakening before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Looks like it’s heading N; when is the right turn projected? The latest Euro, CMC and GFS looked like it came a little North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 FYI, Key West Naval Station still in tropical storm conditions as of last METAR update. Pretty sure that's around 12-ish hours of TS conditions, could be a little off though. Still really impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: The latest Euro, CMC and GFS looked like it came a little North. Looking on radar like it’s heading to Venice/Bradenton area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He looks pretty good. Considering what it was last night, I’m surprised it made it to cat 4. Figured it would be steady state. Completely agree. That is what I expected, though I knew this was possible. Yikes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Holy cold tops 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Unreal intensification going on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Wow does Ian make a run at Cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Unreal intensification going on right nowGoing to make a run at Cat 5. Might run out of time. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Several instantaneous winds measured in the 130s and 140s in both north and south eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 At this angle of approach, Ft. Myers’s to Port Charlotte would get hammered with surge and Tampa Bay might get the western eye wall. Doesn’t look good for Tampa Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Never seen such violent motion with convection on infrared loops before. Wild ass hurricane man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Nibor said: Holy cold tops Clover leaf appearance in the eye. Meso vortices gonna meso vortices 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Lot of lightning all over the eyewall in the last hour. Truly a stunning scene on satellite and radar. We’re on a terrible run right now of Gulf storms intensifying before landfall. Prayers for SW Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Radar showing the eye close to closing off at least temporarily anyways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Great point here by Brian. Though Ian's intensity and track leading up to landfall is very similar to Charley, Ian is much larger than Charley! This will lead to a higher storm surge and much larger area impacted by destructive storm surge and winds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 High end Cat 4. Closing in on Cat 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jconsor said: Great point here by Brian. Though Ian's intensity and track leading up to landfall is very similar to Charley, Ian is much larger than Charley! This will lead to a higher storm surge and much larger area impacted by destructive storm surge and winds. My family road through Charley in 2004 in Punta Gorda (when they thought it was going to Tampa), they actually were able to go out in the eye... they were spared the storm surge that some feared. I'm very very concerned this time for the region. No longer have family ties to the area, but it's a beautiful place up and down that coast. I really hope people are prepared for this... Ian looks like it will be the new storm that sets the bar for this region, and Charley was already devestating. Prayers to everyone in SWFL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Lot of lightning all over the eyewall in the last hour. Truly a stunning scene on satellite and radar. We’re on a terrible run right now of Gulf storms intensifying before landfall. Prayers for SW Florida. Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era. Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: High end Cat 4. Closing in on Cat 5 . I pulled it and thought it was current but according to the time that would of been like 4:57am….unless I’m going stir crazy. I deleted the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like the eye may have closed off, even if only temporarily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era. Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise . The temps are 85. The same they were in 1985. Please stay on topic. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Oh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Well…..blending the Flight Level and SFMR data this yields surface winds of 155mph 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Yeah... not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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