NorthHillsWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Excellent Radar presentation. Satellite presentation will follow soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase would g be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour Eyeball replacement cycle occurred and you are worried about 5 knots when the storm surge just rose 2-4 feet in Marco Island? The IKE has increased and will continue to do so until landfall. I don’t think 7MPH means much now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour Yeah I'm skeptical of any major increases in strength. Esp now that it has increased in size. The pressure drops later could go more into expanding wind field instead of strengthening it, at least initially. Not saying 130 isn't achievable but thinking 120-125 is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Wasn’t out of the realm of possibility especially given the 0Z GFS. Landfall looks closer to Manasota Key now than Punta Gorda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Definitely looks to be moving north. These small wobbles can have big impacts in actual landfall location. Still a lot of questions as to where this one will wash ashore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Maybe just wobbles? As a personal side, N is better for me as I'm on the southern edge of the 15+ rain forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Prolific lightning right now in west to sw eyewall. One of the craziest I seen 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I am guessing by the flight pattern recon wants to taste that new convective burst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Not sure what recons doing. Flying north against the wind. That's not the way back to the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable. Is it just me or is it heading just west of north? It has been a long day and I may be seeing things. may be just directly north over the entire radar presentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Big eye starting to pop out on visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Definitely in beast mode now. IR is going to take a while to catch up to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable. My comment is based on the dry slot just east of the inner core, the lack of anything on the backside, and the restricted outflow on satellite. I am by no means saying Ian is weakening, but these are all signs of the storm having peaked or being near peak. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'm not sure why there are comments on the radar appearance. Looks to me like Ian is about to close off its eye again and the band heading north east looks formidable. This is one of the healthiest looking eyewalls I have seen on Radar in quite some time. In fact, this may rank up there as one of the better ones I have seen on radar period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, AnthonyEC said: Is it just me or is it heading just west of north? It has been a long day and I may be seeing things. may be just directly north over the entire radar presentation. Its wobbling back and forth, which TC's typically do as their tracks are not smooth 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Recon is departing and heading home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like not only is the eye clearing but there are what appears to be mesovortices rotating around inside the center which is giving that ragged appearance on IR. It almost appears like the eye might be a pinwheel eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I agree its questionable whether the winds will ramp up much, but I don't think it really matters, unfortunately. That surge is going to be devastating. The wobble north may be good news for Fort Myers, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Gusting 40-60 mph here as spiral band moves in… Aqua green/blue flashes of transformers exploding in the distance. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree its questionable whether the winds will ramp up much, but I don't think it really matters, unfortunately. That surge is going to be devastating. The wobble north may be good news for Fort Myers, anyway. The winds definitely ramped up based on radar presentation. Probably can confirm higher velocities on radar scope compared to 2 hrs ago. Clearly making a run at cat4 with a large eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: Is it just me or is it heading just west of north? It has been a long day and I may be seeing things. may be just directly north over the entire radar presentation. The 1AM NHC position actually ticked west by 0.1 vs the prior updates. After being at 83.0 at 9PM, it was at 82.9 10 PM-12:30 AM and then the 1AM had it back at 83.0. So, no eastward component of motion each of the last 3 hours and no net east component of motion in four hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 CDO keeps rebounding rounder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Gnarly cell coming out of the radar site. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Is it just me or did the euro just initialize a full degree south and 8mb weaker than current position and strength? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 IR appearance has rapidly improved in the last 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now