Hurricane Ian

[jdj5211]

Recon plane on the way in shortly....let's see what we got!

[WxWatcher007]

Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. 

A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

COAMPS 12z, waiting to see if we ever get an 18z run or if they are gonna skip past the 18z

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Here are the 00z spaghetti models. I do wonder how far out over the Atlantic this one will trend. Probably won't make much of a difference as we're currently talking about a minimal category one versus a strong TS, but it is one of those areas where there is still a fair amount of uncertainty and the trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet. 

A more progressive track over Florida probably means a greater (to a limit) shift over the Atlantic. 

No model to-date has gone north of Charleston that I’m aware

[Nibor]

EWRC over the past couple hours.

[turtlehurricane]

I'm back from Rosh Hoshanah. Wow has this thing shifted east! It looks like SE FL is in for a serious impact. 

I'm scrambling to fill up containers with water, and making sure all devices are maximum charged.

We've been getting torrential flooding rains with lots of lightning. I'll give a more in-depth update about how things have progressed here once I'm done running around. 

The satellite is very reminiscent of Wilma. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Intensewind002]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

EWRC over the past couple hours.

Man the new eye is big, has to be at least like 40-50 miles wide

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

EWRC over the past couple hours.

Good time for recon to head out. It looks like the cycle is concluding but recon would obviously confirm. I think the question now is whether the new eyewall will contract and bring the maximum winds up, or whether the energy becomes dedicated to broadening the hurricane force winds via a larger wind field. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

 

[yoda]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained 
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).  A 
private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon, 
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to 
47 mph (75 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

[Floydbuster]

Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas? 

[Martytdx]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

latest storm cross-section

 

I'm an amateur - how does one read this chart? Thanks in advance. 

[MattPetrulli]

With continued NNE motion, it may come in AT Cape Coral instead of a little north. Hard to tell though. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

With continued NNE motion, it may come in AT Cape Coral instead of a little north. Hard to tell though. 

Good heavens. Current heading is 10 degrees. That is NOT Cape Coral.

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Good heavens. Current heading is 10 degrees. That is NOT Cape Coral.

No need to be rude.

Just presenting the idea, accounting for east wobbles. 

[olafminesaw]

Starting to see the new eyewall on satellite 

[Floydbuster]

 

The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation. 

[olafminesaw]

The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation. 

If it does make a DT landfall I can see it being a heck of a game show question 20 years from now.  Q - “Major Hurricane Ian which caused Billions in damage first made landfall in this part of the United States “   A - What is Dry Tortuga ? 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete

Also starting to see lightning increase in the southern part of the outer eyewall in the last hour on radar. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Won’t be long before this takes on the ol’ Fibonacci spiral look. Sheer is apparent on northwest side.

[Hotair]

This model is calling for Sanibel landfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Karins

 

@BillKarins

 

 

Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

This model is calling for Sanibel landfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Karins

 

@BillKarins

 

 

Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm

I usually hold my tongue, but he should know better than to use the HRRR.  

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I can't believe Tampa has dodged another bullet.

Big rains still look to be an issue there especially just S and E of the city.

[1234snow]

Velocities of around 130mph are being shown from the Key west radar in the north and south quads of the storm. Appears to also show that the ERC is very close to complete.

[Radtechwxman]

EWRC looks almost complete. At least from radar perspective. Eye has filled in on IR satellite for now. Satellite presentation has temporarily degraded some but could see it start improving as it reorganizes overnight. Shear is the potential fly in the ointment. I'm thinking winds might be down on next recon and pressure either steady or up. 

[Hotair]

We have two recon planes investigating Ian at this moment. We should know more soon about the state of intensification and eyewall structure.  

[WxSynopsisDavid]

9 minutes ago, Hotair said:

This model is calling for Sanibel landfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bill Karins

 

@BillKarins

 

 

Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm

I really want to comment to this on Twitter but I feel it’s a waste of time. If he’s that ignorant to be using the HRRR right now it will be like talking to a brick wall to make a point. I really wish, as a local met down there, he will focus more on the environment and mesoscale instead of the HRRR’s ever so changing hourly landfall locations. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Big rains still look to be an issue there especially just S and E of the city.

Yeah, I am ignorant of what Tampa can handle in terms of 24 hour rain totals but 8-10" looks to be quite possible.  Even though they look to avoid the brunt of the hurricane force winds, I would imagine they will still have significant power outages based on the size of the TS wind field?

[Nibor]

The outer eye wall seems to be contracting. Not by much but it's pretty noticeable as the inner eye wall continues to dissolve.