Boston Bulldog Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 SSMIS pass shows the outer eyewall making progress, but still open to the south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EWRC that I commented earlier on was in terms of size. Many times you see it constrict a bit but larger than the original eye. I feel like we are seeing this as we speak. I feel like a good rule of thumb is the eye ends up about halfway between the size of the inner and outer when the process begins. Just from observing these happen and being rather fascinated by the process. Also I've noticed there's often a stubborn little bit of the original eyewall left that takes a while to die. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: SSMIS pass shows the outer eyewall making progress, but still open to the south What site do you get these on? Been trying to find it. I just tried address under picture and it didn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html It actually needs to close off the south quad. Once that happens it is game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html It has everything in its favor to do so though. nighttime, little to no shear and bath water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: What site do you get these on? Been trying to find it. I just tried address under picture and it didn't work https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fnmoc/tropical.html Click on the Satellite Imagery of Tropical Cyclones link. It often gives a "not secure" warning, just as a heads up. Probably one of the more comprehensive pages for TC information 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, NYC10023 said: It has everything in its favor to do so though. nighttime, little to no shear and bath water I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Intensewind002 said: I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… Correct. 15kts by 15z tomorrow and probably 20-25kts by landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I thought environment was supposed to degrade precipitously north of Tampa latitude, inland or over water? What’s the environment look like once this is over Orlando? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 FWIW the EWRC looks like it's almost done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 And both recon planes have turned around, with a single center pass to show for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 South central Broward county in between Hollywood & Pembroke Pines.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Hotair said: Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? Daytime heating boosting that 0-3KM CAPE helps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Daytime heating boosting that 0-3KM CAPE helps. That and there’s no one there to report waterspouts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Inner eye wall looks half open on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? This is just a total amateur guess but could be simply because of land area which allows us to know they are there. The islands are tiny compared to Florida so the odds of a tornado hitting one is very low. Maybe there were just as many tornadoes out in the water but we never knew since we had no radar or people to see them. If a tornado forms in the middle of the ocean and no one was around to see it, did it make a noise? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Inner eye wall looks half open on radar. Issue is the south quad of outer eye, but that looks like it’s closing off now. Once that happens the outer eye takes over and inner eyewall will collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… By the time shear affects this, EWRC will be complete 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 There is still intense convection, with lightning, in the inner eyewall, so it will take awhile to complete the cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Not everyday you see a PDS Tor Warning with a tropical system 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Recon at 946 mb. Are we sure the ERC os still underway? Lol. Ian is not relaxing whatsoever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. It has time but it’s just a matter of “if” Ian can take advantage of the environment it’s in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Lots of lightning in the new eyewall in the last 10 mins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Recon at 946 mb. Are we sure the ERC os still underway? Lol. Ian is not relaxing whatsoever. Oh yeah still underway. I'd say we're gonna stay in the 940s until that southern eye wall closes off and the inner collapses. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Lots of lightning in the new eyewall in the last 10 mins 1. It’s either completing the EWRC and starting to rapidly intensify again 2. Some dry air entrainment is happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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