Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Hurricane Ian


Scott747
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Hotair said:
704 
WTNT64 KNHC 272157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained 
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).  A 
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a 
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky


 

 

Key West airport has now gusted to 63mph 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

7wyrtCc.gif

Almost has a spiral look with the banding right now.

The number of rotating supercells in those outer bands that are appearing on the Key West Nexrad radar is disturbing. 

I see why there is a tornado watch for all of South Florida until 5AM Wednesday morning. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see the  GFS has went  more east. Based  on that trof  i would  be shocked  if this doesnt  continue to correct  south and east. 105 knots at  landfall seems reasonable though if  it takes a  more se path a stronger  landfall is  possible. I can see the cirrus  outflow  now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking like the 2nd landfall is becoming a real possibility.

I'll go out on a limb here and toss out the idea that Ian's legacy (other than the area of landfall in FL and the track immediately thereafter) will be the inland flooding across GA, SC and NC. We already know what happens in the sandhills of eastern NC when you dump a foot of rain in a day.  Been there, done that.  A second landfall and potential re-intensification will just add to the misery.  I expect evacuations of the Outer Banks to be announced by Thursday.  Highway 12 already had sand all over it from Fiona last weekend.  They wont take chances.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

EWRC looks well underway on radar with secondary eyewall really enveloping inner eyewall with degradation of inner eyewall seen. Pretty impressive if we're still seeing pressures dropping that much with this occurring. 

Screenshot_20220927-171420_RadarScope.jpg

What I wonder is, with dry air from the trough gradually getting pulled into south and east sides as the storm approaches Florida, will the outer eyewall be able to strengthen enough to take over and finish the replacement cycle.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'll go out on a limb here and toss out the idea that Ian's legacy (other than the area of landfall in FL and the track immediately thereafter) will be the inland flooding across GA, SC and NC. We already know what happens in the sandhills of eastern NC when you dump a foot of rain in a day.  Been there, done that.  A second landfall and potential re-intensification will just add to the misery.  I expect evacuations of the Outer Banks to be announced by Thursday.  Highway 12 already had sand all over it from Fiona last weekend.  They wont take chances.

OBX would be 200+ miles away from 2nd landfall. Seems like a stretch.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS with absured rainfall totals...the freshwater flooding will be a big story in itself if this comes even close to verifying

1664514000-kmT0rbPkLnc.png

10000% this. Wind will be bad enough but this kind of rainfall is devastating. Overnight/diurnal enhancement of training feeder bands and downshear enhancement north/northwest of a slow moving eyewall could produce some hellacious rainfall amounts.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Why does this worry people?  Aren't we all here because we love big storms?  There wouldn't be 165 members on this thread if we wanted storms to weaken.  If people want to live in dangerous places that's there prerogative, I'm not going to stop being a weather enthusiast because people choose to live in high risk areas.. 

Exactly!  Thank you.  It absolutely drives me crazy when I read that nonsense on a weather board.   
 

The word “worry” is used in place of “Excited!”   Cuz what they really mean, is they are tremendously excited that the storm could indeed in fact strengthen more on its way to landfall, and the amount of damage could be even more extreme.  This is the real truth, but they use the word “worry” to mask that excitement, because they don’t want folks to say they are wishing destruction on people.   

This place would go bazurk if Ian could achieve Cat 5 status…it won’t, but if it did everybody here would be Giddy!  Just saying. 

  • Like 6
  • Haha 4
  • Sad 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The southernmost point camera from Key West people are still standing there as huge waves are coming in

Clearly the big concern is how bad of a hit Florida takes but for us up the east coast the re-emergence and subsequent 2nd landfall has become a real possibility. 

Not much unlike Floridas west coast the east coast is also subject to large landfall location shifts by just a few miles of change in track.

Still lots in the longer range to be determined.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

000
WTNT64 KNHC 272256
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations 
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

During the last hour, the Key West International Airport reported a 
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (114 
km/h). 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky


 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...