Hurricane Ian

[Hotair]

Here’s something new to consider 

Brendan Weathers

 

@WeathersWX

·

1m

 

The 18z NAM was very intriguing. Shows Ian coming off of Florida at 993 mb and deepening to 971 mb before making another landfall in SC. The same thing shearing it may provide a pattern for re-intensification, and there is enough warmth in the Gulf Stream. Something to watch.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer

Completion is unlikely with land interaction and shear. A larger wind field will increase surge issues as IKE increases though. So it’s a double edged sword.


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[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. 

I'd have to agree.  I'm thinking 110-120.  Much will depend on how Ian cycles overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

[AnthonyEC]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

Here’s something new to consider 

 

Brendan Weathers

 

@WeathersWX

·

1m

 

The 18z NAM was very intriguing. Shows Ian coming off of Florida at 993 mb and deepening to 971 mb before making another landfall in SC. The same thing shearing it may provide a pattern for re-intensification, and there is enough warmth in the Gulf Stream. Something to watch.

This has been shows in several models the last few days including the ICON, UKMET and JMA. 

[Superstorm93]

I'd hedge a guess that the window for significant intensification is closing for Ian. The EWRC will likely continue through tonight and shear will likely be on a sharp increase by that time. 

Obviously, the surge and rainfall threats remain rather high. 

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'd hedge a guess that the window for significant intensification is closing for Ian. The EWRC will likely continue through tonight and shear will likely be on a sharp increase by that time. 

Obviously, the surge and rainfall threats remain rather high. 

Yeah think that would’ve been now if it had happened 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Any reasons why parts of the Bahamas would be under a trop storm warning? 
 

Also with a EWRC under way and still 24 hours to go before landfall that does not bode well for SW west coast of Florida with a much wider wind field and the potential for a strengthening hurricane right before landfall. 

Right as it was emerging from Cuba earlier today, I thought that the disruption of its intensification may have meant that we wouldn't see an EWRC prior to LF in FL, however, it actually seems that said land interaction helped to trigger the cycle...which can happen. I am probably in the minority, but given that we are in the early stages of an EWRC with a large outer eye, shear is already beginning to impinge on the circulation and LF is a mere ~24 hrs away, I don't think that it will get much stronger. Main thing to watch for is how much the wind field can expand prior to LF, which will exacerbate surge.

I had 130mph on my First Call as a peak intensity, and was nervous that was too conservative, but I hedged lower after seeing how long it took to get going in the NW Caribbean and factoring in the tenor of the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. 

Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things...

[WxSynopsisDavid]

11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall.

I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current

[HKY_WX]

8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. 

There's a bit of chicken/egg here though. I read a research paper a few years ago that studied annular hurricanes and how being embedded in a drier surrounding environment can sometimes trigger ewrc's and cause the phenomenon.

The model physics take the mid level dry air into account. With the euro showing an intensification period starting on approach tomorrow, I would pay attention. This current reorg is prob already factored into that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current

If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

There's a bit of chicken/egg here though. I read a research paper a few years ago that studied annular hurricanes and how being embedded in a drier surrounding environment can sometimes trigger ewrc's and cause the phenomenon.

The model physics take the mid level dry air into account. With the euro showing an intensification period starting on approach tomorrow, I would pay attention. This current reorg is prob already factored into that.

I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC. 

[Radtechwxman]

17 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall.

It's possible, but after tonight Ian will be out of warmest waters albeit will still be in plenty warm water and will be encountering increasing shear so not sure how much that will mitigate strengthening 

[TPAwx]

18z GFS just a tick east at 15

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4.

Thanks for the clarification, I tend to focus on the mesoscale a lot in this range and I didn’t see that there the other day.

[tiger_deF]

18z ICON re-intensifies Ian into a major after leaving FL, and makes landfall in Charleston

[ATDoel]

EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast.  They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete.  Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling.  Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself.

 

Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Thanks for the clarification, I tend to focus on the mesoscale a lot in this range and I didn’t see that there the other day.

Thanks for that graphic....I hadn't realized. Will use it.

[Superstorm93]

 

[MANDA]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

18z ICON re-intensifies Ian into a major after leaving FL, and makes landfall in Charleston

We know that is not happening and  I'd make a sizeable wager against it happening.

[Radtechwxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things...

I totally agree and wasn't trying to bash them in anyway. Very tough forecast they had for strength and track. That was just my opinion. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ATDoel said:

EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast.  They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete.  Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling.  Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself.

 

Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow.

Often times, they just never regather that same initial, pristine structure and thus intensity (I call it the "skunked" look, with ragged CDO, etc)...other times, they end up even more ferocious, thereafter....Katrina was one such example.

[TPAwx]

GFS has landfall slightly north of Englewood Wednesday evening

[HKY_WX]

9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC. 

Not sure, but I would think any kind of hostile conditions could trigger it. I only brought up dry air bc thats all I see at the current time. I dont see any signs of shear impacting it currently.

[yoda]

Ian exiting east coast of Florida back into the Atlantic at 66

[Brian5671]

GFS with absured rainfall totals...the freshwater flooding will be a big story in itself if this comes even close to verifying

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Warmest SST’s ahead of Ian will be on landfall directly over the loop current running up to Ft Myers. Pocket of 86-87 degree SST’s

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Not sure, but I would think any kind of hostile conditions could trigger it. I only brought up dry air bc thats all I see at the current time. I dont see any signs of shear impacting it currently.

Of course, I was reading something awhile back on shear and EWRC and was trying to remember the article. Definitely concerning we are down to dry air and EWRC to hinder Ian

[Hotair]

704 
WTNT64 KNHC 272157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained 
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).  A 
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a 
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

 

[yoda]

2nd LF of Ian on 18z GFS is near Savanah, GA