ROOSTA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The width is expanding. Whom ever gets into the eyewall is in for a wild ride, damaging too. So wide the State is becoming dwarfed. Not often do you see H force winds gate to gate across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Question, watching the Melbourne radar, echoes pushing S to N seem to be dying out just north of West Palm; is there drier air coming from N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Based on current trends (models, satellite and radar) I think the furthest north Ian landfalls is Venice. Most likely landfall IMO between Port Charlotte and Naples. Clearly looks to me to be moving NNE. It is feeling the trough. Barring an ERC (not something that can be forecast) looks to landfall as a strong 3 to possibly low 4? Satellite presentation is extremely impressive. Obviously conditions will be the worst near and to the right of landfall location but it is going to be bad over a large area of coastline. Some areas between Venice and Naples are very surge prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking? That was if it landfalled in the panhandle as you know. I said if it hit south of Tampa it would be 105 knots which could be a bit low but a major. Its rather amazing to me Ian doesnt zoom out NE and after FLA miss the east coast. Out in the tropics if there is the slightest barely noticeable weakness a storm will turn into it everytime. This is a very strong trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South. Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt. Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro is pretty similar to last nights 00Z run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Euro is pretty similar to last nights 00Z run so far Its about 30 miles south closer to Port Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro appears to be south again. Hope it gets south of Naples. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 AF308 is doing a buoy drop but other than that we have no recon for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South. Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt. Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point. Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Euro appears to be south again. Hope it gets south of Naples. Be careful what you wish for. The Hoover Dike around Okeechobee is widely considered one of the nation's most at risk to fail. Refer to the 1928 storm for a what if scenario. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Pressure down to 955 and winds up to 120 as of 2 PM 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. Landfalling south of Naples would bring devestating impacts to the east coast, exactly like Wilma did. Dade-Broward-Palm Beach is the most populated part of the state and the eye going through there would be nearly worst case scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Crawling up through central Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro basically comes in by Venice...depending how fast it moves eastern portions of metro Tampa might still get into the western eye wall with strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north). 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Seeing this continually slide NNE-NE and constantly be on the right hand side of the guidance even after said guidance corrects east is very unnerving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This run does get it off the Atlantic Coast near JAX and it a little faster than last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The euro now takes Ian back over the Atlantic while it sits of the Ga/sc boarder by 5pm Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north). Seeing the isobars parallel with the bay like that is certainly unnerving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: This run does get it off the Atlantic Coast near JAX and it a little faster than last night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 What an odd track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north). Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility. It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The stall over FL appears dead too-more models taking it steadily NE now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today: 1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas 2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall 3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC. 4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility. Naples South definitely in play with the trends and time left. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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