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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

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Based on current trends (models, satellite and radar) I think the furthest north Ian landfalls is Venice.  Most likely landfall IMO between Port Charlotte and Naples.  Clearly looks to me to be moving NNE.  It is feeling the trough.  Barring an ERC (not something that can be forecast) looks to landfall as a strong 3 to possibly low 4?  Satellite presentation is extremely impressive.   Obviously conditions will be the worst near and to the right of landfall location but it is going to be bad over a large area of coastline.   Some areas between Venice and Naples are very surge prone. 

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35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?

That  was  if  it  landfalled  in the  panhandle as you  know. I said  if  it  hit  south of Tampa  it would  be  105 knots which could  be a  bit  low  but  a  major. Its rather amazing to me Ian doesnt  zoom out  NE and after FLA miss the east  coast. Out  in the tropics  if there  is the  slightest barely  noticeable weakness a storm will turn into it  everytime. This  is a  very strong trof.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

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4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out. 

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10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Landfalling south of Naples would bring devestating impacts to the east coast, exactly like Wilma did.  Dade-Broward-Palm Beach is the most populated part of the state and the eye going through there would be nearly worst case scenario.

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If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

image.png.0410b59c731aba9e6a5acbfe555a75c2.png

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4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

image.png.0410b59c731aba9e6a5acbfe555a75c2.png

Seeing the isobars parallel with the bay like that is certainly unnerving 

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10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

image.png.0410b59c731aba9e6a5acbfe555a75c2.png

Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time. 

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3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch. 

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Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today:

1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas

2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall

3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC.

4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.

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