GoAPPS Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ian now doing gulf storm things I bet the 2 p.m. advisory will raise some eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Anyone know what the local key west scene is like this afternoon? I wonder what their high water mark from surge from this event will be. Go to YouTube and search key west by live plenty of cameras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: CMC has been a western outlier its entire cycle. I'm leaning Ft. Myers, either just 10-20 miles north/south or over it. Very true look forward to the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: I bet the 2 p.m. advisory will raise some eyebrows. Yeah this looks set to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 UKMET continues leading the trend southward. The 12Z track, in red, goes from halfway between Naples and Ft. Myers to way down at Melbourne: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 HWRF still going directly into Tampa Bay EDIT: Take that back, actually goes in north of Tampa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: UKMET continues leading the trend southward. The 12Z track, in red, goes from halfway between Naples and Ft. Myers to way down at Melbourne: Is orange the previous track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Lightning wrapped all the way around the eye now... don't see that every day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Both the HWRF and HMON are so much more intense at landfall than yesterday’s runs. The HMON shows a Cat 4 landfall just northwest of Ft. Myers and the HWRF shows a mid Category 3 landfall at Indian Shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Eye completely wrapped in convection now. Quite the explosion of lighting on all sides in the last 30-minutes (if that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Are any of the models running now accounting for the latest intensity recon is finding at this hour? Ian looks stronger now than NHC had forecast at 11 am. Those of you who study gulf canes, is it a sound assumption that higher intensity will resist eastward steering more resulting in a more Northward track for longer vs a weaker storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking? 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z cross-section of this storm (HWRF) 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hotair said: Are any of the models running now accounting for the latest intensity recon is finding at this hour? Ian looks stronger now than NHC had forecast at 11 am. Those of you who study gulf canes, is it a sound assumption that higher intensity will resist eastward steering more resulting in a more Northward track for longer vs a weaker storm? Didn’t happen with Charley. This is already feeling the trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is orange the previous track? Yes, orange is previous. Here's the HM tweet that has this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 955 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. On its current heading, it landfalls at Port Charlotte 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference? The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Treyce Jones @FLweather_wx said In 30-36 hours, 12z HWRF & HMON both show Ian as a high end Cat 4 just off the FL coast. This is looking increasingly concerning. The impacts are likely going to be devastating. Be safe everyone! worrisome that recon is indeed also showing the type of intensification that could easily take Ian into high end C4 territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, ATDoel said: So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference? The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting. Global model resolution isn't high enough to accurately model pressures in intense TCs. Values from the GFS and especially the EURO and UKMET shouldn't be taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. use the radar for tracking at this point, it's going to be more accurate than the satellite loop. Definitely moving NNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twister4999 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, ATDoel said: So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference? The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting. GFS is a global model and should be used more for track purposes vs strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Clear mesovortices visible on satellite imaging now. Ian is really starting to bomb out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, ATDoel said: why did the new recon turn around? and here I thought a fully functional plane was actually about to sample the storm, damn! Please keep your random thoughts in the banter thread 4 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 More hot towers firing up on the last few frames of the IR loop, Ian doing more work on its already impressive eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian's eye clearing out quickly on visible satellite: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeseastabimesoscale1®ex=00p64um&title=GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2&time_drop=show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 KNHC issues Vortex Data Message: 951 URNT12 KNHC 271749 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/17:07:10Z B. 23.36 DEG N 083.38 DEG W C. 700 MB 2713 M D. 957 MB E. 115 DEG 21 KT F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 101 KT I. 059 DEG 6 NM 17:05:00Z J. 146 DEG 101 KT K. 052 DEG 9 NM 17:04:00Z L. 96 KT M. 105 DEG 9 NM 17:11:00Z N. 199 DEG 109 KT O. 102 DEG 11 NM 17:11:30Z P. 9 C / 3056 M Q. 18 C / 3038 M R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 25 MAX FL WIND 109 KT 102 / 11 NM 17:11:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now