Hurricane Ian

[HKY_WX]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  83.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.09.2022    0  22.5N  83.5W      979            56
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   12  24.5N  83.2W      977            60
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   24  25.9N  82.3W      976            60
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   36  27.0N  81.4W      989            42
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   48  28.1N  80.6W      992            44
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   60  29.2N  79.9W      989            53
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   72  30.5N  79.9W      985            57
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   84  33.0N  80.0W      985            40
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   96  34.9N  81.4W      999            29
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  108  36.3N  81.0W     1005            23
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  120              CEASED TRACKING

Just taking a look at forward motion and trends, I'm starting to lean south as well. No time to breath a sigh of relief in Tampa, but trends are going in the right direction for them.

[ATDoel]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

ADT is an algorithm. We literally have recon in the storm right now. 

Stop. 

When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s?  Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading?  The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close.  Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?

[jbenedet]

12z GFS initialized with a 975mb pressure. Still gets down to 960, 18z wed. If we applied a 15 mb drop to Ian at 963 mb, we're looking at 948 mb by 18z tomorrow.

That's conservative based on current sat presentation. 

 

[kat5hurricane]

43 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

It'll come in a different area than Irma, but the satellite appearance, last minute shifts, expansion of the wind field after Cuba, and the angle of approach remind me a lot of Irma. Of course, east coast probably won't be hit as hard since Irma was massive, but think it's a valid comparison. 

The difference being that Cuba did a number on Irma which it never really recovered from whereas Ian seems to be chugging along just fine after Cuba with plenty of growth potential ahead.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Just taking a look at forward motion and trends, I'm starting to lean south as well. Not time to breath a sigh of relief in Tampa, but trends are going in the right direction for them.

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

We truly live in a golden age of remote sensing and data archival.

 

[eyes2theskies]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Still see a heading slightly east of due north.

 

I see the same thing. I thought it was tired eyes

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s?  Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading?  The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close.  Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?

Recon is by far the best way to receive the data necessary for real-time analysis of tropical cyclone structure and strength. There are many times where we see a great (or terrible) IR appearance and recon finds otherwise. These are complex processes and sometimes it takes time for winds to respond to pressure falls, expanded wind fields, etc. 

IR can give you a sense of an overall structural trend, but recon tells you what's actually happening. 

[schoeppeya]

This storm has a pretty spectacular satellite presentation for its current intensity.

[Modfan2]

Could be just the radar, but does it look like dry air is getting wrapped into the back side?

[hawkeye_wx]

10 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s?  Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading?  The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close.  Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?

It just spent several hours experiencing surface friction while moving over Cuba.  The pressure will drop back down as it moves out over the open ocean.

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

 

Good shot at this crossing FL only to re-emerge in the Atlantic and attempt to ride up the coast. 

[weatherwiz]

Starting to see convection and lightning increasing in the southern eyewall now too. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I'm starting to lean south as well. Just taking a look at forward motion and trends. Not time to breath a sigh of relief in Tampa, but trends are going in the right direction for them.

I agree 100%.

The UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting that city and even Naples in the major danger zone, has lead the charge. The 12Z run is the 11th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models (even better than the ICON).

 Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

[Superstorm93]

The overall presentation remains rather incredible. 

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Could be just the radar, but does it look like dry air is getting wrapped into the back side?

Could be winds from coming down from the mountains on the backside. 

[HKY_WX]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Interesting that guidance which has Ian move into the Atlantic re-intensify. Conditions: Favorable -> unfavorable --> favorable.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure I buy that unless we see king euro jump on that train. If the Hurricane models/NAM are right, it would be a solid 2nd hit in GA/SC.

[Weather Mike]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree 100%.

The UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting that city in the major danger zone, has lead the charge. The 12Z run is the 10th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models.

 Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

12Z CMC has it going over Tampa 

Who knows maybe out to lunch? 

anyway everyone stay safe 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah, I'm not sure I buy that unless we see king euro jump on that train. If the Hurricane models/NAM are right, it would be a solid 2nd hit in GA/SC.

@USCG RS

Yup. Just makes it more interesting to watch. If Ian was going to get shredded in the Atlantic who cares if it makes it?

Being a strong major, also gives more opportunity for short term surprises in track; as we are all seeing. 

Just watching with keen interest. This is a great one.

 

[Superstorm93]

Not great to see the eye already on the right side of the track 

 

[MANDA]

37 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. 

 

Took a little longer to get going early on but Ian has not disappointed over the last 12-18 hours.  Atmosphere was primed for this to happen and SST ideal.  Once it got vertically aligned off it went.

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@USCG RS

Yup. Just makes it more interesting to watch. If Ian was going to get shredded in the Atlantic who cares if it makes it?

Being a strong major, also gives more opportunity for short term surprises in track; as we are all seeing. 

Just watching with keen interest. This is a great one.

 

Agreed. We went from possibly a weak Cane meandering North offshore to a potential Cat 3+ hitting central Florida at a decent clip. That said, this will be costly as that's such a populated area of the country. 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Not great to see the eye already on the right side of the track 

 

That plainly says to me that another nudge to the right is coming with the 5pm advisory.  Little doubt in my mind about that.

[Eskimo Joe]

Ian now doing gulf storm things

 

[weatherCCB]

Looks textbook. NHC might need to adjust their intensity forecast.

[MANDA]

Looking great.  Satellite presentation is super impressive.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop120.html

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ian now doing gulf storm things

 

There was something weird about that particular dropsonde though. It happened before the 961 mb dropsonde in the eye and was labeled northwest eyewall. 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

12Z CMC has it going over Tampa 

Who knows maybe out to lunch? 

anyway everyone stay safe 

CMC has been a western outlier its entire cycle.

I'm leaning Ft. Myers, either just 10-20 miles north/south or over it. 

[Tezeta]

Anyone know what the local key west scene is like this afternoon? I wonder what their high water mark from surge from this event will be.