kat5hurricane Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Based on how Ian looks now structurally, I'm surprised NHC is only forecasting Ian to hit 130mph now. I think that's a bit conservative imo. I get it took a 10mph drop in winds and 13mb increase in pressure but that isn't bad considering hours over mountainous terrain. Peak strength is often underestimated nowadays. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Trying to clear out a stadium effect eye right after Cuba lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Find their location for when the latest surge inundation map comes out https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents Thank you for sharing so others can find their locations vs asking IMBY questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 41 kt gust measured at Key West International ASOS - 121 nm from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 It'll come in a different area than Irma, but the satellite appearance, last minute shifts, expansion of the wind field after Cuba, and the angle of approach remind me a lot of Irma. Of course, east coast probably won't be hit as hard since Irma was massive, but think it's a valid comparison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said: my wife is freaking out we have been through many hurricanes in our house but we bought a fifth wheel to live in full time. We are on the east coast Martin County debating on staying or going. leaning towards going to shut her up. 4 minutes ago, jpbart said: Dude, just go. 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Go, this one is the real deal 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: The east coast? I’m confused? all of this should be in banter. 8 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota It’s actually north and west of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 (Just in case anyone else is reading this) Please, do NOT consult this thread (or any) to make decisions whether or not to evacuate. I'm begging you guys to listen to your county/local emergency management officials for all storm related information. 25 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s actually north and west of 6z It's not, it's virtually identical Edit: Sorry, after the LF point it is north and west. My bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 What a beaut. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 At 30 hours GFS is a bit west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Last 4 cycles of the GFS 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The improvements with the eye over the past even 30-minutes alone is quite noteworthy. Clearing out quite nicely and trying to become more symmetrical by the (satellite) update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Appears through 24 the GGEM will finally join the party and come further east but remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12Z GFS Landfall Thursday 2am. Just NW of Ft Myers area. 975mb. This position is slightly NW of last run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Last pass adjusting for flight levels and SFMR supports 110-115 MPH on 11 AM advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. Does that signify something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, floridapirate said: Does that signify something? I read a long time ago that it could be a sign of weakening, but then I've seen multiple hurricanes like Michael and Ida have increased lightning right before they rapidly deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 KNHC issues Vortex Data Message NOTE: reporting closed eye 832 URNT12 KNHC 271612 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/15:46:30Z B. 23.13 DEG N 083.47 DEG W C. 700 MB 2746 M D. 961 MB E. 115 DEG 4 KT F. CLOSED G. C19 H. 92 KT I. 316 DEG 8 NM 15:44:00Z J. 041 DEG 82 KT K. 315 DEG 10 NM 15:43:30Z L. 82 KT M. 098 DEG 7 NM 15:49:00Z N. 186 DEG 107 KT O. 087 DEG 15 NM 15:51:00Z P. 7 C / 3035 M Q. 17 C / 3052 M R. 12 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 17 MAX FL WIND 107 KT 087 / 15 NM 15:51:00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, ATDoel said: How is this a 963mb storm?? I hate to disagree with the NHC on anything, but this makes no sense to me, there's just no way? ADT has this in the 930s, and that looks about right based on presentation. ADT is an algorithm. We literally have recon in the storm right now. Stop. 5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, floridapirate said: Does that signify something? Usually it's a sign of RI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 NW quadrant of the core has really ramped up over the past hour. Eye looks much better now as well. Sad news for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Satellite looks great, but the southern eyewall did just move back over water in the last 20 minutes. The pressure should respond once the inner core is full over water again and the friction is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56 0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60 1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60 0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42 1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44 0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57 0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29 0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23 1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Cool video from NOAA plane 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I think we're about to see Ian's Wind/Pressure respond in a big way. Vis Sat is spectacular. Central Florida is going to get rocked now that it looks like it's not going to stall offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Still see a heading slightly east of due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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