WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Very impressive intensification process right on landfall caused by friction. Very similar to Charley in some degree in how quick it happened. I believe they even had the data to support Cat 4 but will review it after the season when composing the TCR. This forecast by NOAA NHC has been stellar and they smacked the ball out the park with this one. I agree so far with how they been upgrading Ian and the data they chose for further review. The intensity forecast has been solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location. Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength? Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location. Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength? Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous. It’s possible and very likely Ian can obtain Cat 5 as peak intensity. The question is whether Ian can hold it on landfall. The track that would support this would be landfall points south of Tampa as it’s the path of least resistance. Tampa and points north it will encounter shear/dry air so it’s highly unlikely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location. Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength? Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous. And it also depends on internal processes which can never be forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Cuba landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point. From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Little east of due north now as it feels the effects of land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Cuba landfall. Ian is about to cross Cuba with an open eye and tight CDO. Let’s see what them mountains do to it shortly. If Ian maintains structure and intensity crossing Cuba this is going to be a huge day that we might remember for a long time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point. From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes. Hurricane Models have peak intensity at landfall 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Tops are warming so Cuba having an effect. But as long as it has an eye structure, it should re-intensify. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 My biggest fear is that land interaction will induce an EWRC. We don't need to expand the winds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Tropical Storm warnings expanded here in SE FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: My biggest fear is that land interaction will induce an EWRC. We don't need to expand the winds. That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall. Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario Also basically storms the storm there....I mean its just making it to Orlando at 0z Saturday! I can't really believe it would stall like that for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. The tracks on the models south of Tampa feature little to no dry air and almost no shear. What you are implying is if Ian tracks north of Tampa. A landfall south of Tampa is the path of least resistance. Point is, if Ian rolls in at peak intensity it won’t be Tampa or points north. Too much dry air/shear situated up there 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. Also Ian won’t be over water long if it comes in south of Tampa vs a track to the north. If Cuba induces an EWRC soon Ian will likely recover once it emerges and should be able to landfall intensifying. Very little time to undergo another one once it gets into the Gulf. Of course everything I said changes if it goes north of Tampa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers. Looks like models are coming to some agreement of a Sarasota region landfall give or take 50 miles north or south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6Z GFS is N. Ft. Myers landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CampergirlFL Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Orlando Met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looking better for Tampa and immediate vicinity this morning in terms of avoiding worst possible storm surge. Huge difference center going near or north vs. off to the south. Means difference of water getting pushed into the bay or being blown out. Let's hope recent trends hold and center crosses south of Tampa. IMO that is likely based on recent model trends. Trends over the last few days in fact have been indicating a gradual nudge to the right and TPC has been on top of it with advisories being nudged eastward with each issuance. Heavy to excessive rainfall still going to be an issue for a large part of Florida peninsula. Of course one persons gain is another ones loss. The track further south means the ante is upped in terms of a stronger landfall, perhaps near or just off peak. There is going to be a 9-12' surge for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian is about halfway across Cuba and seems to be holding up well this far, although it is just now getting to the higher terrain (about 1,500 ft hills) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 It any other model implying a stall or is the GFS on an island here? Stalls are very often over done and don't materialize. thats said the NW flank of the storm is at higher than normal risk for excessive rainfall if the storm coming to the coast/inland. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Hurricane Hunter showing reading of 947.4 over land.. is this extrapolated from Wind speed? They obviously aren’t dropping dropsondes over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Did that plane fly through the eye over land? I thought they don't do that. I was shocked when I saw the recon map. I've never seen them do a center fix over any land. Halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I was shocked when I saw the recon map. I've never seen them do a center fix over any land. I doubt there were any dropsondes, but even halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive. Recon can do a brief fix or data point if it's near the coast and there is a need (IE: rapid strengthening, expected turn, unusual feature) but it is not a common practice. Got to talk with the hurricane hunters when they were in DC the other year about it. There are 2 reasons for this: 1.) There is more turbulence flying over land than water. 2.) No terrain issues over water. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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