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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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14 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

Very impressive intensification process right on landfall caused by friction. Very similar to Charley in some degree in how quick it happened. I believe they even had the data to support Cat 4 but will review it after the season when composing the TCR. This forecast by NOAA NHC has been stellar and they smacked the ball out the park with this one. I agree so far with how they been upgrading Ian and the data they chose for further review. The intensity forecast has been solid

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EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location.
Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength?
Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous.  

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1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location.
Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength?
Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous.  

It’s possible and very likely Ian can obtain Cat 5 as peak intensity. The question is whether Ian can hold it on landfall. The track that would support this would be landfall points south of Tampa as it’s the path of least resistance. Tampa and points north it will encounter shear/dry air so it’s highly unlikely. 

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4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location.
Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength?
Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous.  

And it also depends on internal processes which can never be forecasted

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As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point.

From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes.

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2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point.

From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes.

Hurricane Models have peak intensity at landfall

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8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall.

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

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6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario 

Also basically storms the storm there....I mean its just making it to Orlando at 0z Saturday! I can't really believe it would stall like that for so long.

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Just now, Nibor said:

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

The tracks on the models south of Tampa feature little to no dry air and almost no shear. What you are implying is if Ian tracks north of Tampa. A landfall south of Tampa is the path of least resistance. Point is, if Ian rolls in at peak intensity it won’t be Tampa or points north. Too much dry air/shear situated up there

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4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Not necessarily. Especially with the forecasted interaction of dry air from the trough coming through the eastern US. 

Also Ian won’t be over water long if it comes in south of Tampa vs a track to the north. If Cuba induces an EWRC soon Ian will likely recover once it emerges and should be able to landfall intensifying. Very little time to undergo another one once it gets into the Gulf. Of course everything I said changes if it goes north of Tampa.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

Looks like models are coming to some agreement of a Sarasota region landfall give or take 50 miles north or south. 

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Looking better for Tampa and immediate vicinity this morning in terms of avoiding worst possible storm surge.  Huge difference center going near or north vs. off to the south.  Means difference of water getting pushed into the bay or being blown out.  Let's hope recent trends hold and center crosses south of Tampa.  IMO that is likely based on recent model trends.  Trends over the last few days in fact have been indicating a gradual nudge to the right and TPC has been on top of it with advisories being nudged eastward with each issuance.  Heavy to excessive rainfall still going to be an issue for a large part of Florida peninsula.  Of course one persons gain is another ones loss.  The track further south means the ante is upped in terms of a stronger landfall, perhaps near or just off peak.  There is going to be a 9-12' surge for someone.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was shocked when I saw the recon map.  I've never seen them do a center fix over any land.

I doubt there were any dropsondes, but even halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive.

Recon can do a brief fix or data point if it's near the coast and there is a need (IE: rapid strengthening, expected turn, unusual feature) but it is not a common practice. Got to talk with the hurricane hunters when they were in DC the other year about it. There are 2 reasons for this: 

1.) There is more turbulence flying over land than water.

2.) No terrain issues over water.

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