Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Formation of Ian's eye today on IR. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The hurricane models now have it staying a high end Cat 3 up until landfall in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro is slightly further NE than 18z through 24. Safe to say it wasn't a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The hurricane models now have it staying a high end Cat 3 up until landfall in Florida Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro has landfall near Sarasota Siesta Key/Venice late Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z Early HREF and HMON on paid sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Early HREF and HMON on paid sites Yeah I had a moment man, its been a long shift at work. My apologies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: Formation of Ian's eye today on IR. Great gif--Fascinating to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Edit, Euro landfall between Siesta Key and Venice verbatim Wed 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looking at the 00z HWRF it has Ian as a powerful Cat 4 west of Tampa, bombs to 945mb. Landfalls on Waccasassa Bay State Preserve as 963mb Cat 3. Windfield even expands again right on landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 00z HMON landfalls Ian as a Cat 4 near Sarasota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Euro has landfall near Sarasota Siesta Key/Venice late Wednesday Would be better for Tampa with that south landfall for storm surge but still a brutal hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, shaggy said: Would be better for Tampa with that south landfall for storm surge but still a brutal hit. How much better, though? Is it that much of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, shaggy said: Would be better for Tampa with that south landfall for storm surge but still a brutal hit. Yeah for sure, plenty of wind and 15+ inches of rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much better, though? Is it that much of a difference? Yes. A southwest wind funding water into the bay creating a 8+ foot storm surge versus a North East wind blowing water out of the bay. Makes a huge difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EPS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I’ll take a Sarasota landing from these latest runs at this point. Especially if it comes in along near empty corridors and stays inland I mean it’s going to be a terrible storm any way you slice it. Might as well spare High cat 3 winds into Tampa Bay which has the highest population center of the entire west coast region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 118 WTNT64 KNHC 270631 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...IAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA SOON... Earlier aircraft and more recent satellite data indicate that Ian has continued to strengthen. The maximum winds are now estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 230 AM EDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 83.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Very similar agreement on track between GFS and Euro. Euro is 24 hrs to get from landfall to Orlando. Wow. Drops a few lollipops of 30" Temple Terrace to Zephyrhills. Would be surprised if NHC doesn't adjust to at least I-4 corridor track next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Excellent call by the NHC. Nuclear core development going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Landfall looks likely in the next ~hour near La Coloma, Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Really clear eye now with high clouds all around. Possible mesovortices even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 What a look Ian has right now just before landfall in Cuba. Had my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Posted this in the Mid Atlantic Thread: 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Well, it finally happened. My parents moved into their new home near Sarasota (15 miles inland) and will be evacuating tomorrow to Ft Lauderdale. Looks like they will take a hit head on for their area. Their house is a fortress, so not too concerned about its integrity, but it'll certainly be an unwelcomed present. They moved in back in early May after getting it built near Lakewood Ranch. Tough intro to living down their permanently. Hopefully everything is okay when they get back. I've been working midnight shifts and keeping tabs on the storm. I was staying in touch with @WxWatcher007during his excursion to Nova Scotia earlier in my string of shifts. Glad everything went well there. Now for round two with Ian. Can someone turn off the Tropics please..... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian looks incredible right now on IR. Land interaction I definitely think helped tighten up core. Too bad Cuba probably going to undo all that beauty on satellite now. Curious how much it will degrade tonight over land and how quick it will recover tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian is bombing out right now and 115mph is probably a tad conservative. 4-5 hours over flat western Cuba is likely to slow or halt intensification, but probably not enough to hinder it much by tomorrow afternoon. EDIT: landfall declared, 110kts/952mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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