Hurricane Ian

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Pressure falls continuing, down to 959

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

On the graph? It’s showing what the flight level wind and pressure is doing as the recon flight traverses the storm…..those are twenty minute increments….red is pressure and blue is wind….. wind spikes right before you punch through the eyewall then tanks…..pressure continuously tanks until their heading away from the eye…..

No meant, the spike before the eyewall which thought represents a potential EWRC but seems not true

Also we likely have a major

[yoda]

FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL

[TPAwx]

14 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. 

Hard pass.

[AnthonyEC]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL

CMC initialized 20mb higher than currently reported. Take it with a grain of salt. 

[AnthonyEC]

1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Hard pass.

That’s twice as much rain as the May 1979 flood. 

[yoda]

Just now, AnthonyEC said:

CMC initialized 20mb higher than currently reported. Take it with a grain of salt. 

So did the 00z GFS... so...

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like we got an eyewall?

 

[AnthonyEC]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

So did the 00z GFS... so...

48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. 

[yoda]

Just now, AnthonyEC said:

48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. 

Thats why I said FWIW

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Hard pass.

Serious question since you're from there.  Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south.  What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area?

[shaggy]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said:

48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. 

Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves?

[Floydbuster]

Here's a midnight video update for my fellow night owls. Ian is strengthening faster than the videos can be uploaded! Crazy!

 

[hooralph]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Serious question since you're from there.  Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south.  What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area?

Not a meteorologist, but I suspect it would cause catastrophic flooding?

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Requesting an additional 6hrs over water before land interaction.

[MNstorms]

Tornadic waterspout likely.

[Nibor]

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: even further south just N of Ft. Myers, exits FL near Cape Canaveral, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2022

             HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N  83.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 27.09.2022    0  20.8N  83.3W      984            51
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   12  22.8N  83.4W      985            47
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   24  24.4N  83.2W      983            49
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   36  26.1N  82.5W      982            59
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   48  27.4N  81.6W      991            45
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   60  28.4N  80.6W      995            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   72  29.4N  80.4W      993            53
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   84  30.5N  79.9W      993            44
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   96  33.0N  80.1W      990            38
    1200UTC 01.10.2022  108  35.0N  81.1W      999            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  120  36.4N  80.6W     1005            21
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  132  36.8N  79.9W     1008            23
    0000UTC 03.10.2022  144              CEASED TRACKING

[shaggy]

15 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said:

48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. 

Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves?

 

Gefs spread has increased and now has a handful of members off the east coast. This is at 90 hours 

 

 

[Calderon]

Tornadic waterspout likely.

I’d venture that’s a easy guess there. Helluva couplet.


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[TPAwx]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Serious question since you're from there.  Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south.  What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area?

it would be devastating.  To preface, much of the area has minor but disruptive flooding with heavy summer t-storms.  That much rain has no place to go.  The city/metro has extremely dense vegetation and tree cover (one research outfit rated Tampa the #1 city in the world for tree cover).  We obviously have tall palm trees but we have a lot of huge oaks. Massive amounts of trees and branches would come down on properties and streets, power outages would be extensive.  All that falling and standing water would do a number on structures.  With that stall easterly fetch would also push a ton of water around and carve up east facing shoreline.  I'm not a hydrologist so I'm sure there's plenty of other impacts on infrastructure and public health.

Overall, a sub-optimal amount of rain and scenario.

[TradeWinds]

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb.

There has been a bit of a bend/wobble to the nw while this plane has been out there.  Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track.  The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now.

[TradeWinds]

10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb.

There has been a bit of a bend to the nw while this plane has been out there.  Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track.  The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now.

On radar, it may have wobbled but looks minimal. Also looks to have wobbled back on the NHC track. But agree on longer term path. 

[Normandy]

Ian is cranking right now....might be taking advantage of some land interaction tightening the circulation up.  For the first time in its life deep convection surrounds the eye.

[Floydbuster]

The Cuban radar looks almost due north at the end.

[Nibor]

 

[Normandy]

I see a deep trough that is digging and a rapidly intensifying hurricane directly to its south.  I am having a hard time seeing this getting further west.

[Floydbuster]

Is it just my eyes or has Ian slowed way below 13 mph?

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I see a deep trough that is digging and a rapidly intensifying hurricane directly to its south.  I am having a hard time seeing this getting further west.

 Right now it is near 83.6 W with 83.7 W the furthest west 11PM NHC point. So, this looks like it is right in the forecasted path.