eyes2theskies Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Do I have this right? Stronger cane more south and east or vice versus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Is there any off chance that Ian could not make it to major hurricane status? If so how would that effect the storms future track? I’m sure there is…he’s been struggling from the start. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 12z GFS maybe a tad east, but stronger and bigger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 The GFS is a hair east through 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 12z is coming in east of 6z edit - material shift thru 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 12z GFS maybe a tad east, but stronger and bigger Also gives tropical storm conditions to most of the Florida West Coast which I was skeptical of, even though there's warnings and watches out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 66 hours -- GFS ALMOST making landfall near mouth of Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 GFS as depicted is really bad for TB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m sure there is…he’s been struggling from the start. I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhaps the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, TradeWinds said: Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhals the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see. Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 That may be a near worst case scenario run for Tampa Bay, has both surge and winds into the city. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking. Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 New Video Update on Ian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s21N7LmYW6s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just parks over Tampa through 00z Friday lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Damn thing is just gonna wash out over Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 hot run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4.... This thing hasn’t been, nor is it currently impressive. It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together. “Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao. I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, beanskip said: GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking. Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area. It’s a crusher. Watching the loop, it literally crawls up to the bay and sits over us. Getting ready to eat a wrap and some onion rings from my freezer (use it or lose it), just lost my appetite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 At least we get this run out of the way now..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: From what I can gather, the main sources of track error are: Stronger hurricane likely gets a bit further south and west. The northeast trough. Does it dig far enough southwest to drag Ian northward or does Ian miss and meander in the GOM for a few days and weaken under shear? Yea. Along these lines, you can clearly see based on steering flow that there is a few scenarios where this could really stall near TB, but that isn't being well advertised by the guidance. The right hook into TB would lead to a faster rate of weakening due to landfall, and being less vertically stacked while the low to mid level flow becomes increasingly ambiguous. This could allow Ian to meander near the west coast of Fla as a TS, which would result in a severe rainfall threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 GFS is worthy for Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This thing hasn’t been, nor is it currently impressive. It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together. “Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao. I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: GFS is worthy for Tampa Reminds me of the NAM runs when I lived in NOVA that would spit out 50 inches of snow. Thankfully this one won’t verify either 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track. Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 This would be 4th system in 8 years that goes up the Florida coast and threatens some of the core coming ashore, (Dorian, Matthew, Isaias). Just funny because I don't recall that in 2000s/90s, could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 One thing to note is that winds aren't actually pushing into the bay from the south until Thursday afternoon, due to approach angle. This may mitigate a GFS solution somewhat as the storm is starting to weaken. Probably too little too late, but still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 GEFS east some too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Wow -- LOL -- CMC goes a good bit back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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