Hurricane Ian

[Modfan2]

5am cone from NHC 

[Prospero]

Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

Yea woke up to a hurricane watch and I’m sure evacuations will be next for some of us. 06Z ICON still has it coming into the greater Tampa area. 

[Superstorm93]

Hell of a time to have two recon planes in a rapidly intensifying hurricane 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Hell of a time to have two recon planes in a rapidly intensifying hurricane 

 

Ian is trying to evolve into a buzzsaw

[olafminesaw]

Stalls out and crawls NNE from here. Not only is surge a factor of strength and proximity to the coast, but also where the stall occurs

[Hotair]

18 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

Yep. My worst nightmare is unfolding.  Had neighbor helping us with some sandbags.  Will be leaving after rush hour to son’s house in Lakeland   Everything wife and I could move is off the floor just in case we get lucky last minute and flooding is not what is expected.   Frankly can’t see how we don’t get 2 to 4+ feet or more into the house as we have 10 ft elevation from SL  -older house.  Newer houses are all elevated in my area and have living areas about 10 or 12 feet above ground   
 

once I saw Jim Cantore land in Clearwater yesterday I knew the jig was up.  

[WxSynopsisDavid]

NAM landfalls south of Tampa Bay and the FV3 Hi-Res seems to be following the same track. Interesting to see the CAM start to lean towards a Tampa or points south landfall......very similar to some of the EURO op runs and the ensemble runs we seen the last few days

[nycsnow]

Hopefully we get some remnants up here 

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

NAM landfalls south of Tampa Bay and the FV3 Hi-Res seems to be following the same track. Interesting to see the CAM start to lean towards a Tampa or points south landfall......very similar to some of the EURO op runs and the ensemble runs we seen the last few days

CAMS are not able to handle tropical systems. They should never be used for track or intensity. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Down to 978 on this pass 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

CAMS are not able to handle tropical systems. They should never be used for track or intensity. 

Yes CAMS are Convective Allowing Models. And yes as standalone model runs, no they shouldn't be used. As in......molding a forecast to the track depicted on the NAM. However the closer you get to an actual landfall they help to sniff out the mesoscale environment ahead of the storm (since they are programmed/designed for the mesoscale). In years past I have actually used the NAM to help indicate effective timeframes when possible internal processes would happen. Also, the NAM has a tendency to sniff out last minute shifts in track as landfall approaches. They are effective tools and have their purposes like every other model. Though they are not ocean coupled they also help with forecasting so I agree to disagree with your statement.

[olafminesaw]

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Its coming along nicely, that eye looks healthy

[Prospero]

We're still a couple days out in Tampa Bay. Tracks do change, so hoping for good news. Still concerning to see the predictions right now.

The day Irma was coming into Florida, Tampa Bay was the target but it went in much farther South than expected. We still got hammered by strong TS conditions which created a big mess.

[nycsnow]

 

[TPAwx]

50 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

 

47 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Yea woke up to a hurricane watch and I’m sure evacuations will be next for some of us. 06Z ICON still has it coming into the greater Tampa area. 

 

18 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Yep. My worst nightmare is unfolding.  Had neighbor helping us with some sandbags.  Will be leaving after rush hour to son’s house in Lakeland   Everything wife and I could move is off the floor just in case we get lucky last minute and flooding is not what is expected.   Frankly can’t see how we don’t get 2 to 4+ feet or more into the house as we have 10 ft elevation from SL  -older house.  Newer houses are all elevated in my area and have living areas about 10 or 12 feet above ground   
 

once I saw Jim Cantore land in Clearwater yesterday I knew the jig was up.  

Good luck fellas and be safe.  On Bayshore a few feet above sea level fronting Hillsborough Bay, nowhere to hide here.

Will take the 0z UK.  0z Euro is sickening.  06z ICON actually landfalls slightly south, it would not be fun but the track avoids the worst for many.

[nycsnow]

[SnowenOutThere]

Will be interesting to see visible in an hour or so.

[Superstorm93]

IR continues to dramatically improve. Should be a big day. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

IR continues to dramatically improve. Should be a big day. 

Ian moving over some notable warm eddies in the next several hours so I wouldn't be surprised to see another rapid pressure fall

[TPAwx]

Opening bid is 5-8 for surge.  Had 4 here with a weakening TS Eta 50 miles offshore, so….

STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

FLZ151-261715-
/O.EXA.KTBW.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
Coastal Hillsborough-

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours

A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Tampa
- Apollo Beach
- Westchase

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning
until Friday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday
afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 6 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway.
Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.

[Prismshine Productions]

Latest VDM, a big as hell open eye

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[hawkeye_wx]

The satellite presentation is impressive this morning, quite a change from 24 hours ago.  

[WxWatcher007]

First light visible is going to be a sight. Deep convection now wrapping 3/4 around the eye. Nice outflow continuing to develop. Those extraordinarily high RI probs look to verify today. 

 

[Weather Mike]

39 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Opening bid is 5-8 for surge.  Had 4 here with a weakening TS Eta 50 miles offshore, so….

STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

FLZ151-261715-
/O.EXA.KTBW.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
Coastal Hillsborough-

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours

A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Tampa
- Apollo Beach
- Westchase

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning
until Friday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday
afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 6 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway.
Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.

Bayshore Blvd will be under water for sure. I'm in sunset park zone A so will see how high the water comes as I am very close to the bay. 

[olafminesaw]

There are some 1,500 ft mountains for Ian to traverse, it will be interesting to see how this may impact the storm. It may tighten up the core 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First light visible is going to be a sight. Deep convection now wrapping 3/4 around the eye. Nice outflow continuing to develop. Those extraordinarily high RI probs look to verify today. 

 

Neat how the convection around the eye lines up with the radar which shows the eye trying to close atm. 

[nycwinter]

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The satellite presentation is impressive this morning, quite a change from 24 hours ago.  

the storm was always going to become a major no matter what the nay'ayers on this board were saying yesterday..

[olafminesaw]

One bit of good news for Tampa is the new moon was yesterday 

[dan11295]

You can tell from radar that banding is rapidly improving and core is tightening. Nothing to slow intensification until it hits Cuba early tomorrow. 

Obviously track is going to be critical for potential US impacts. further west is best case, as you get minimal surge into Tampa Bay and you probably have a weakening Cat 1 at best when it gets to the panhandle.