Hurricane Ian

[WxWatcher007]

Just getting back home and finally getting a good look at Ian. IR doesn't always tell the story, but tonight we see numerous meaningful clues that after developing a structure earlier in the day, Ian is finally taking advantage of an increasingly favorable environment. 

From just a few hours ago, it was evident that Ian was starting to pick up the pace of organization with the development of spiral bands and hints of an inner core. 

With IR, we see multiple vortical towers trying to wrap around that core. The very intense convection itself probably has this near hurricane force if not already there. 

Finally, I like taking a look at the Weathernerds WV to make sense of whats happening under the cloud tops. 

Much like the IR, you see how in recent hours the towers have gone up and tried wrapping around a developing core. I haven't had a chance to dive deep into long term track and impacts, but in the last few hours Ian has certainly put "meat on the bones" so to speak. This leads to the eye-like feature (we don't quite know until confirmed by recon) that @MattPetrulli posted earlier. 

Nothing earth shattering, but I expect recon to find Ian a hurricane tonight. Once there is a fully developed inner core, this one should be able to take off intensity wise. Dry air may have hindered the convective activity earlier, but this is a delayed but not denied situation IMO. 

[Floydbuster]

That CDO should really crank overnight. 

[CamSE-Wx]

GFS tad west so far, slower through 42

[MattPetrulli]

GFS sizably west

[Amped]

CMC started east of 12z but ended up a bit west by 84hrs

[CamSE-Wx]

JMA is also west on the 00z. Maybe a trend to watch there, we’ll see if the Euro bites in a bit

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS depicts a very small system north of Cuba 

[Normandy]

I am watching that giant curved band on the north side very closely.  Lots of motion in those cells suggesting that we might have large core developing.

[Floydbuster]

Here's a late night Ian video for the night owls like myself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Oi2_jjOjRI

 

[Radtechwxman]

I think it's safe to say cores have aligned and are taking full advantage of high OHC and low shear environment right now. CDO exploding 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET shifts back SE to Port Charlotte area of FL (ignore the lowball strengths as they've been low on every run. I watch mainly for the track changes). So, UKMET is a pretty decent right outlier, something it isn't accustomed to as more often it is on the left:

 

 TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N  80.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 26.09.2022    0  17.0N  80.7W     1000            34
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   12  18.9N  82.1W      997            38
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   24  20.8N  83.4W      994            39
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   36  22.8N  84.0W      994            45
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   48  24.2N  83.6W      992            46
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   60  25.8N  83.2W      989            54
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   72  26.8N  82.5W      990            51
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   84  27.2N  82.1W      993            49
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   96  28.3N  81.8W      993            47
    1200UTC 30.09.2022  108  29.5N  81.3W      995            41
    0000UTC 01.10.2022  120  29.8N  81.8W      996            34
    1200UTC 01.10.2022  132  31.9N  80.8W      998            32
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  144  34.8N  79.8W      999            29

[SnoSki14]

If west trend wins expect a weak system at landfall with flooding being the main issue

[csnavywx]

[WxSynopsisDavid]

32 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That suddenly made me hungry...but I'm at work tonight and cant cook shrimp lol

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Has a nice comma look now

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Very healthy CDO with deep convection wrapping around the center. Ian is off to the races now

[Amped]

987.9 extrap, core has expanded a lot though.

[hawkeye_wx]

The new recon pass suggests the pressure is about the same as it was when the last plane left hours ago.

[hlcater]

New flight suggests only modest pressure falls over the past few hours. Though, notably, the storm's organizational structure has improved, with 50kt winds now showing up immediately SE of the center in what is likely a nascent inner core.

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Indeed we are seeing structure improvements and the pressure is steady now with minor pressure falls. Remember though, there is a lag between us seeing structure changes and the pressure actually tanking. By 5am we should see another significant pressure drop. It takes a few hours for the pressure to respond. It all does not happen at one time

[Snowlover11]

70mph at 2am

[GaWx]

0Z Euro 72 gets to just offshore Tampa and then barely moves north through 96 staying just offshore, a true nightmare scenario. Then it accelerates north to GA/FL border at 120.

[TradeWinds]

00z Euro looks to head directly for Tampa and then hits a wall miles off shore and then moves N to NNW next frame. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Down to 985

[cptcatz]

71 knots in the NE quad. Special advisory coming with upgrade to hurricane?

[Normandy]

Windfield is greatly expanded with a second wind maxima already detected

[Scott747]

Looks like it has been upgraded in the database...

[Scott747]

About a 2-3 mb pressure drop on latest fix.

Official upgrade won't be till the next update in an hour or so.

[Superstorm93]

IR isn't spectacular with the heaviest convection once again located outside of the RMW 

[Superstorm93]

There's the eye...