Hurricane Ian

[Hotair]

I’m not ready to place lots of faith in any of the models just yet.  The last Recon data we got showed Ian was still a broad, messy system that wasn't vertically stacked and had multiple competing centers.

we should be getting new recon data in the next hour or so that may reveal if a dominant center has established.  At that point, models can be fed with more reliable initial conditions. Thoughts? 

[NeffsvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’m not ready to place lots of faith in any of the models just yet.  The last Recon data we got showed Ian was still a broad, messy system that wasn't vertically stacked and had multiple competing centers.

we should be getting new recon data in the next hour or so that may reveal if a dominant center has established.  At that point, models can be fed with more reliable initial conditions. Thoughts? 

I think you’re on the right track.

 

Until Ian gets a bit better organized, track accuracy is going to suffer significantly.

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That is one hell of a high pressure to the north of this storm. Odd situation where you’ve got the 540 line all the way into Michigan and a tropical system barreling towards it.
 

To tell you the truth the Euro shows a legit CAD setup with a cold high 50s rain with this puppy inland

[hawkeye_wx]

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Wanted:   A core  

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Looks either elongated or like there may be another center south of the initial wind shift area. Mid-level center is more apparent on satellite as being SW. Still displaced. Convection is a lot better but until we get some clarity on which area becomes dominant, track is going to be up in the air. The far left and right side of the envelope most likely result in a strong hurricane landfall. Fast and up the center result in a shredded system under 40-60kt of vertical shear. Cross sections clearly showing those solutions to result in a classic, textbook case of rapid eyewall collapse. It speeds up and makes landfall to the right before shear can tear it apart or slows down to the left before it reaches the hostile area and decelerates as the trough pulls away.

[Hotair]

Center fix for Ian now is a full degree further north than the center fix from this morning's recon. Neither of these fixes were assimilated into 12z guidance, so any model trends prior to 00z tonight probably should be taken with a grain of sand 

[Hotair]

Near term Ian recon flight schedule for those who may be interested 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

You can feel the wishcasting on here based on which side of the coin people chime in with

[Hotair]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane 
Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the 
Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and 
Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is 
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday 
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass 
near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then 
approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday
when it approaches western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by 
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday 
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday, 
and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.  

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up
to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14
inches

Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Amped]

Seeing no west winds to the south of the center

[Hotair]

[GaWx]

12Z Euro 24 slightly SW of 6Z at 30

[Hotair]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this 
morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western 
portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data 
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still 
vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to 
the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product 
of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis. 
The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR 
retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial 
intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A 
generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone 
is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn 
northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it 
moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of 
the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been 
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with 
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount 
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data 
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and 
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow 
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the 
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again 
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has 
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies 
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments 
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty 
in the day 3-5 period. 

Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters, 
and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted 
structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant 
to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously 
supports strengthening during the next several days, and the 
SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt 
intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has 
been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane 
by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major 
hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is 
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian 
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

Key Messages:

1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and 
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over 
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with 
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid 
next week.

2.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early 
Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3.  Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba and approach 
the west coast of the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane 
strength early next week, where there is increasing confidence in 
multiple life-threatening hazards: storm surge, hurricane-force 
winds and rainfall flooding. While it is too soon to determine the 
exact magnitude and location of these hazards, residents in Cuba, 
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have 
their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local 
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 14.4N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.5N  76.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 15.5N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.0N  80.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.8N  82.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 20.7N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.7N  84.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 26.0N  83.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 28.6N  82.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[bugalou]

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Something of note also, GFS trending a little lesser with the dry air the more west it goes

That's because its all about the strength of the trof in the NE.  If the trof is stronger and digs more its going to advect more CP dry air southward while making Ian go further east. If the trof is weaker and digs less there is going to be less dry air advected south and less steering influence on Ian (and the ridge to the NW of Ian pulls it more westward).

[GaWx]

12Z Euro 48 only very slightly SW of 6Z run at 54

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon just found another weak surface center/wind shift down below 13ºN.  It's a bit of a mess at the surface.

[madwx]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just found another weak surface center down below 13ºN.  It's a bit of a mess at the surface.

That’s associated with the old mid level center. I’ll assume the mid and low level centers will focus around 14.3N since that’s where the convection is generating the most PV 

[GaWx]

This 12 Euro 72 is barely NW of 6Z at 78. Essentially the same location as 6Z run then. Headed for Tampa?

[Porsche]

[wncsnow]

Tampa inbound this run

[MattPetrulli]

Tampa landfall Thursday morning on 12z Euro

[Porsche]

Looks to be strengthening upon landfall

[SnowGoose69]

The HWRF shows landfall E of Panama City

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro still has rapid deepening on approach, at least until the last few hours. It turns nne toward landfall just before the dry air rushing in from the nw can get into the system.

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HWRF shows landfall E of Panama City

As a high Cat 2/low Cat 3 too

[TPAwx]

Nightmare fuel, tho thankfully can’t treat with any confidence this far out. 

[Hotair]

Folks. Keep in mind that Euro handles convection differently from GFS   Once these models are fed a stable dominant center then we can start to take them more seriously

GFS and Euro

 

[hawkeye_wx]

This run barely makes it to the coast before curving back north along the coast.  If it trends any farther west it will remain over water, like other models are showing, and weaken.

[cptcatz]

I mean is this even a cyclone?