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Major Hurricane Fiona


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BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES
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Just now, Tatamy said:

06z Euro projected wind gusts for Fiona when it reaches Nova Scotia.

sfcgustmax_006h_kph.ca_e.png

Your eyes are not playing with you.  Projected gusts on Sable Island are expected to reach 150 mph.  Many places from Halifax and east are projected to see 80 - 100 mph gusts.  This includes eastern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, and the SW coast of Newfoundland.  The model is projecting efficient transfer of this wind energy to the surface.  

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4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

GFS and EURO both intensify the low as it turns north this evening and approaches the coast. Obviously there is some skepticism due to how low of a pressure they are showing. 6z GFS has 929 mb just before landfall.

Regardless if the 929 mb is too low and it likely is it will be quite a show up there.  Suspect there will be power outages for 2 weeks or more over parts of Atlantic Canada....not fun.

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Sea Level Pressure plot from Sable Island from the past 24 hours, you can find these graphs on the MesoWest website:

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CWSA&unit=1&time=LOCAL&product=&year1=&month1=&day1=00&hour1=00&hours=24&graph=1&past=0&order=1

time_chart_dyn.png.b01a5b6ca87f77ad42d4c11be2a765f6.png

*And to note, on the left hand side of that website, you can change between metric and English units*

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38 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z GFS.  There have been a lot of statements made that Fiona will be post tropical when it reaches Nova Scotia.  It appears that it will still have a relatively calm center at landfall.  Note that these numbers are KPH.

sfcgust_kph.ca_e.png

 

As it's transitioning it'll still have the calm center. The worst winds will likely happen a ways east of the center. It'll look something like a regular nor'easter when it comes ashore with all the steady rain west of the center but this obviously is incredibly worse. 

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

06z Euro projected wind gusts for Fiona when it reaches Nova Scotia.

sfcgustmax_006h_kph.ca_e.png

Models tend to overestimate the extent of winds west of a hybrid or subtropical storm, but in this case there will be a very strong pressure gradient between Fiona and a high pressure over the eastern US so it might enhance it a bit. Even right now, recon is finding the strongest winds south and east of the center, while the NW quadrant isn't overly impressive. However, the eastern side has an INSANELY large and strong windfield as per recon. 

 

We'll see how it plays out, but the more impressive winds will likely be over Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton (and of course Sable Island). 

recon_AF304-2707A-FIONA.png

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