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Major Hurricane Fiona


GaWx
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30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah I am pretty certain that is old wall cloud debris slowly dissipating. Fiona is looking pretty sexy right now. Wonder what peak will end up being. I'm going to say 145 mph sustained sometime during the day tomorrow, though certainly it could get there tonight.
ba59e11a932b44fe4b3a8f0467ff0479.gif

There’s also been mesovortices rotating throughout the eye of Fiona today so it could be another mesovortice that went up. 

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It does decent from my understanding. Outside of the hurricane models the EURO does better than the GFS with hybrid storms. Still there’s a lot of agreement among the models that a sub 930mb Fiona strikes Nova Scotia.
I am finding the sub 930s hard to believe even with all the model agreement. Perhaps sub 940, but it just seems a bit too extreme, though obviously not impossible. That's a good 30 mb below their records. We shall see...
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18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems to be some kind of constant EWRC process that keeps repeating. Already a partial secondary eyewall.

20220922.110800.AL072022.ssmis.F17.89H.115kts.84p9.1p0.jpg

Yeah these internal processes can be prolonged and last a day or more. Some cyclones can be plagued with constant internal processes their whole life. Theory here is that Fiona has had this constant EWRC to fend off the sheared environment it was in. 

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36 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah these internal processes can be prolonged and last a day or more. Some cyclones can be plagued with constant internal processes their whole life. Theory here is that Fiona has had this constant EWRC to fend off the sheared environment it was in. 

It would seem I was wrong, it just took all day yesterday for the EWRC to complete and now the eye just needs to wrap convection around and contract. The satellite ended up being misleading in this case 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_07L/web/mainpage.html

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35 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

I knew operationally there were watch/warning breakpoints on the Labrador coast, but I never expected to see them actually used. 

Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems.

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23 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems.

This is correct. Also storms of a tropical nature are more frequent now. In the past it was years in between glancing blows. Now we get a direct threat every couple. 

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37 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems.

Yes, I knew that. I don’t know if they’ve used the watches/warnings for Labrador yet though. 

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E-W cross section of Hurricane Fiona, winds (colorized), isotherms of 0C, -12C, -18C, (blue, purple) isentropic surfaces (black), The thing that looks like a hill at the middle of the picture is a little confusing. The sea-level pressures of the storm are below 1000mb, with a strong gradient down to a recon-measured 937mb, I believe. 1000mb is the bottom of the image, so it must show the 937mb pressure as a hill shape. You can see the 0C, -12C, and -18C isotherms bump up in the middle, as well as the isentropic surfaces bump down. That means that the core of the hurricane is the location where the latent heat release has warmed the atmosphere the most. And then there's the 128kt wind in the eyewall, reducing to 20kt in the eye. It does show asymmetry.

 

hwrf_Winds_10m_12_006_50089627_cross_weathernerds.png

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The NHC's "squished-Mercator-ish" map (I'm no cartographer) looks really weird when it has to be stretched from the mid-Atlantic to the Arctic Circle. I also noticed they didn't bother marking the wind speed probabilities above 60N. First time I think I've seen that cutoff. 

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Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ.

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1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ.

How much of the coastline is susceptible to surge there. Is most of it elevated cliffs or is a lot of it low lying? 

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