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Major Hurricane Fiona


GaWx
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12Z UKMET goes NW over far E PR and then moves WNW for short time followed by NW...so quite a shift E from prior run at PR!

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.09.2022

        TROPICAL STORM FIONA      ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N  63.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 17.09.2022    0  16.3N  63.6W     1005            35
    0000UTC 18.09.2022   12  17.2N  64.9W     1003            33
    1200UTC 18.09.2022   24  18.4N  65.8W     1001            44
    0000UTC 19.09.2022   36  19.0N  67.7W      999            45
    1200UTC 19.09.2022   48  20.0N  68.6W      999            46
    0000UTC 20.09.2022   60  21.4N  69.9W      996            53
    1200UTC 20.09.2022   72  22.4N  70.5W      995            51
    0000UTC 21.09.2022   84  23.9N  70.5W      987            57
    1200UTC 21.09.2022   96  25.8N  70.0W      978            54
    0000UTC 22.09.2022  108  27.8N  69.3W      969            63
    1200UTC 22.09.2022  120  30.6N  68.6W      961            73
    0000UTC 23.09.2022  132  33.9N  66.5W      953            84
    1200UTC 23.09.2022  144  38.7N  61.4W      942            99

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11 minutes ago, Amped said:

Structure continues to improve.  This is going to pass over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage.  Thinking very little or no passage over DR.  Maybe center skirts the NE coast of DR.  Certainly all the morning guidance is unanimous with fishing trip.  Window for east coast threat has closed.  Incoming mid week trof is just too strong.  Fiona is going out.  Seems as though any chance of U.S. landfall this season is going to have to come from Caribbean.   Pattern just not going to allow for anything moving westward over the Atlantic to come close.  Still not giving up on something from the Caribbean moving northward into the GOM or up nearer the east coast as we go into October.  I think September chances are about done.

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Disagree that it has tightened up despite the pressure being lower.  The below recon pattern shows a highly broad windfield, with many wind maxima far away from the actual center.  Not sure this is the structure for deepening.  EDIT:  Seems per radar and recon fix it has the structure of a broad gyre with a tighter center orbiting around.  It could explain some of the strange motion between fixes.

vaap4HC.png

uhQ7bRE.png

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Recon finding a somewhat disorganized system with wind max away from the center. This is probably due to dry air entrainment into the center, as evident by the lack of convection in left quadrant. Still a 50-55 knot tropical storm, but needs to organize more for quicker intensification. That being said, appears on radar that organization is becoming more apparent with center increasingly becoming more defined. This could possibly be because of proximity to radar being better, but also because of DMAX. DMAX should help Fiona a bit more and could push it towards more of a 60-65 knot system overnight. 

 

recon_AF303-0907A-FIONA.png

6f054b5bd79d466b83485d291f4ec800.jpg

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Per recon this is just a tick below a hurricane. Slowly but surely organizing a core. Good convective burst over the center right now. Looks like some mid level dry air is the biggest hindrance at the moment as, based on cloud pattern, shear has decreased. Still not an ideal shear environment by any means but not enough to stop this from slowly strengthening 

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Now that Fiona is a done deal as far as a U.S. hit I think we can close the lid on a miserable CV season.  Any potential threats to the U.S. are going to have to come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Gulf at this point.  Not giving up on that chance just yet.  Fiona has organized significantly over the last 24 hours and seems destined to reach hurricane status and maybe major hurricane status as it exits into the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days and heads out in general direction of Bermuda.  This season is going to bust hard for anyone that was calling for big numbers and land impacts.  Very surprising based on what the pattern looked like going into the season.  Solid La Nina, SST that were at least normal, if not above in the MDR and some healthy waves emerging off Africa.  Shear and dry air just put an end to  the MDR season before it began.   Even the Caribbean and GOM could not produce.  We'll see what happens over the next 4 weeks.  After that can't count on much.

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  • GaWx changed the title to Major Hurricane Fiona

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