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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

23 at the casa this am, and 10 miles west...35.  Sounds like a warm day on tap as soon as the remaining pockets of cold get scoured out.

 

Happy Turkey Eve.  See you at the bar tonight :lol: (supposedly the biggest drinking day of the year - or sumthin like that).

 

24 for my low in Marysville & 27 currently.

The upcoming pattern starting in about 10 days should get full time winter storm tracking well underway.

Happy Turkey Eve!

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15 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Now some Tobias v. Big Ben action. 

Hey, I just checked the MA LR thread and folks are seeming quite happy once we get a bit into Dec.  Teleconnections are not my thing as there is a lot of guess work but it's a better vibe and look once we get past the next couple weeks.  Let's hope the reality of LR models becomes fact to set up a White Dec.  It may soon be @Blizzard of 93 time to show some real threats.   

This pattern showing on the ensembles with the -NAO blocking near Greenland & the ridging near Alaska should produce some real winter threats starting in about 10 days to 2 weeks if it continues to hold.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This pattern showing on the ensembles with the -NAO blocking near Greenland & the ridging near Alaska should produce some real winter threats starting in about 10 days to 2 weeks if it continues to hold.

 Outside travel issues for Christmas, it would be great to get a great pattern and at least one moderate snow in the second/third week of Dec time frame. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This pattern showing on the ensembles with the -NAO blocking near Greenland & the ridging near Alaska should produce some real winter threats starting in about 10 days to 2 weeks if it continues to hold.

Im hoping that block can get a bit further west (as well as that ridge out W ).  E based NAO ok, but pull that puppy west a bit more and I think we'd like that look.  I know I'll sign. Until then....nothing anomalous is fine by me.  As you stated, prime time is still to come.  

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z GEFS & EPS both agree & have the Greenland based blocking in a good spot between day 10 & 15.

26CDD560-58B6-42EB-BC07-178E559060E0.png

B4314CC5-CDFE-43FF-850E-F890C4F8B33B.png

I was lookin at Op run when I said that.  see below.  Oops.

at same timestamp as you posted, GFS ens diverge, and GEFS is similar to Euro, but GEPS looks notsogood

gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

27 at 6:45. Way too early for me but a train must be caught. 

 

48 minutes ago, canderson said:

Happy Thanksgiving eve, all. On the way to NYC.  

AEDCF4CD-62A8-49F7-B2C0-CF6B7DBF9BBF.jpeg.64c8aa618ed350d3ac3f11e734f924cc.jpeg

I know the look and feel of those seats all too well haha.  Been catching the early train for more than a decade, never gets easy!

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55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

24 for my low in Marysville & 27 currently.

The upcoming pattern starting in about 10 days should get full time winter storm tracking well underway.

Happy Turkey Eve!

check out GFS ens. i posted them a bit ago.  I hope the king is back.  AO and NAO both look to be negative around the time you posted, so it adds some confidence that the window may be opening around that time.  PNA heading + as well, so that would promote ridging (or at least less chances of troughiness in the west).  From my view, MJO looks to be low amplitude 8/1 around that time frame, That said, nothing hostile about tellies IMO.  (Mind you thats just my take, and I dont know if any experts agree.  Maybe @MAG5035 (or anyone that has better insight) can step in to tell us what they think.

 

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