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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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16 minutes ago, pawatch said:

 It’s irritating all this cold air in the mornings.

it’s 18 degrees this morning. 

And we’re looking at rain coming up. No cold air to be found.

22 for me this AM.  Forecast was 28, so we can go lower than expected once in a while.

Yeah, like I suggested for a little while now, this weekends event is still being sorted out.  Yesterday I almost posted about the possibility of this storm ending up in CHI...and if you look at 6z...well there you go.  WAY west.  Thought -AO might help to suppress a bit, but NAO is heading + so that might be the more dominant feature helping to let this thing lift and not stay under us.  Again, just my hunches at to whats driving the pattern and how the models respond.  

As always (and already alluded to), the long range looks better.....:P.  

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28 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Front end thump, then a mixed bag of slop?

Front end "snow" vs. Dump.  2-3" with temps in the 30's.  But it is the only game in town for the LSV area over the next 15 days (as progged now.)  

 

Outside back and forth model perturbations, there is no real cold air to grasp on over the next couple weeks.   Seems a fairly mild period with some bouts of well AN are possible.   If not for some help from the Atlantic, we would be really frying.   End of the Euro/EPS/GFS (240+)/GEFS (240+) all show some signs of real cold entering the US again, so targeting the second week of Dec for winter to return.   My AC unit has NOT been covered yet. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

22 for me this AM.  Forecast was 28, so we can go lower than expected once in a while.

Yeah, like I suggested for a little while now, this weekends event is still being sorted out.  Yesterday I almost posted about the possibility of this storm ending up in CHI...and if you look at 6z...well there you go.  WAY west.  Thought -AO might help to suppress a bit, but NAO is heading + so that might be the more dominant feature helping to let this thing lift and not stay under us.  Again, just my hunches at to whats driving the pattern and how the models respond.  

As always (and already alluded to), the long range looks better.....:P.  

Cold air was always too far north for this one anyway.

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16 hours ago, paweather said:

This stinks after last week. We had to go through much of Nov warm now starting in December. Yuck. Get the shorts out. LOL

 

16 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

AKA, every morning in Maytown. 

 

 

Just saw this!

I own 2 pairs of pants - nice ones for the office, a pair of jeans for date nights with my wife. Outside of that it is shorts 24/7/365. I'm fine outside in shorts when we walk until the temp gets down close to zero. We walked 5 miles early Sunday morning and it felt amazing out there in shorts. 

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Cold air was always too far north for this one anyway.

Yeah but for a couple runs the storm was taking on a stacked look and when it got close, the 700's were close to diving in on the back side.  I shared a couple pics to show that, so that ya'll didnt think I was nuts or anything :P  Verbatim it was a coulple ticks away from something salvagable for parts of our area.  Obviously that changed, and still is changing.

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Just saw this!
I own 2 pairs of pants - nice ones for the office, a pair of jeans for date nights with my wife. Outside of that it is shorts 24/7/365. I'm fine outside in shorts when we walk until the temp gets down close to zero. We walked 5 miles early Sunday morning and it felt amazing out there in shorts. 
Senator-elect Fetterman? Is that you?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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26 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I have seen tennis courts converted to pickle ball courts.


.

Yea, we have one here at the main Waynesboro park and it is a hassle to play.  Even if you get lucky and get the court, people will stand there and stare at you hoping to pressure you off.   You can also lower the tennis ball net and use the serve lines on a full tennis court. 

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30 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I have seen tennis courts converted to pickle ball courts.


.

 

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, we have one here at the main Waynesboro park and it is a hassle to play.  Even if you get lucky and get the court, people will stand there and stare at you hoping to pressure you off.   You can also lower the tennis ball net and use the serve lines on a full tennis court. 

Pickelball is so cool that a potential NFL Hall of Famer is playing:

https://www.wtae.com/article/local-woman-unknowingly-plays-pickleball-with-tj-watt-alex-highsmith-and-minkah-fitzpatrick/40272471#

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57 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I have seen tennis courts converted to pickle ball courts.


.

I cant think of any local public tennis courts that havent been converted.  My wife/fam grew up playing tennis (had their own court as well), and she just played pickleball w/ her mom and brother and said she really enjoyed it. I also grew up playin tennis, so I hope to try pickleball next year.  Gotta keep movin to stay young....or feel less old.

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and IF 12z GFS has a clue, 2m temps show one day in the 50's as we turn the calendar, but lotsa 40's showing for max temps.  Sounds kinda normal and I'm just fine w/ that.  Cold press looks looming in wayoutthereville, although I'm not putting much stock in that, as we've got some sorting out to do well before that.

 

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12Z GFS has highs in the low to mid 50's (LSV) for most of the next 7 days with 1PM temps being in the upper 40's and low 50's.  Slight Above Normal highs and then a spike more AN for a short period.  So little cold air on this side of the country right now.   Even help from the Atlantic would be limited.  Rain wise Sat night and Sun look wet. 

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and to further support my statements about this weekend, loop through the GFS/GEPS/GEFS 500 maps over the last 2 days.  Just a tad bit of change...inside 5 days

12z seems to fit the pattern a bit better.  Of course that doesnt correlate to a win w/ snow, but at least the maps look a little more like they should IMO.  These are my takes (and not from another forum or source), so take it with a grain of salt.   

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