Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Fwiw, it snowed exactly 4 years ago on this day. .Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 8 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Man, all 3 model runs from 18z gave Cumberland county 5". Maybe hoping for 2" might work out. If it covers the grass it's a good storm. I'm down to 24.8 and still slowly dropping under crystal-clear skies. This is my lowest temp for the season thus far. The whole night below freezing will help pavement accumulations, but probably not anything that falls before 4:00pm. Looking at overnighters seems like a tick south w/ 850's and has you guys looking good. Based on winds, it looks like a changeover is likely for many but not after a nice kickoff to snow season. Nice trend. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 27 in Akron. Looks like overnights ticked colder....and thats a pleasant surprise (to me). Congrats to many now in the game. Still worried about the SSW wind doing a quick scouring of our precious cold, but if we get the rates...it may offset that even down here (for a while anyway). NWS has r/s mix for me this afternoon and early evening. If we see a little white rain....it's a win for me. For you norther/westers, enjoy and share some pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 25 was the low here in the historic district - currently it's 29 under a deck of high cloudiness. With many hours of temps below 28 last night, hopefully that puts the kabosh on the 2022 lawnmowing season. Next mow, which will be TBD prior to the first snowfall down here, will be the 56th of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 25 was the low here in the historic district - currently it's 29 under a deck of high cloudiness. With many hours of temps below 28 last night, hopefully that puts the kabosh on the 2022 lawnmowing season. Next mow, which will be TBD prior to the first snowfall down here, will be the 56th of the season. All time record for single season mowings? You count them so don't tell me you don't have a Hall of Records for this stuff. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 25 was the low here in the historic district - currently it's 29 under a deck of high cloudiness. With many hours of temps below 28 last night, hopefully that puts the kabosh on the 2022 lawnmowing season. Next mow, which will be TBD prior to the first snowfall down here, will be the 56th of the season. i would have liked to get 1 more in. Looking doubtful now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i would have liked to get 1 more in. Looking doubtful now. Jon, I expect beer in snow pics from you. Just no naked snow angels........K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 I'd like to get 56 snow plows in this season.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: All time record for single season mowings? You count them so don't tell me you don't have a Hall of Records for this stuff. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk This season is a top 5 for sure. Not sure it ranks #1 - my mowing stats aren't as in depth as some of my winter stats. I can tell you that the analytics say there's a 97% likelihood that I will mow again in the next few weeks. Always go with the analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i would have liked to get 1 more in. Looking doubtful now. Yep. Much better chance you get something white later on today than for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Temp already above freezing here - 32.8 under filtered sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Radar still down this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Temp now up to 32.9 after an overnight low of 22.6 degrees, which was the coldest low of the season thus far. Currently, at 9:15 skies are overcast with the sun dimly visible. I know I'm not going to get the snowfall that the models have been advertising around here, but all the models posted here have the 5" mark over me with some freezing rain just to my west. Maybe this first one overperforms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Somethin to chew on while we wait for game time. Nooner NAM back to lookin a bit more like I thought it would (from yesterday) and says I 80 southers (save laurels/elevation SC/SW) may have issues. Guess we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 850's are marginal w/ that wind direction IMO and will really need dynamic cooling to get it done...me thinks. Mind you the NAM has been warm for this one, so if temp profiles are off a bit, that can make a notable difference in ones backyard and wet vs white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Hard to believe we see much freezing rain. Would need surface temps around 30 for that. 35 here now...filtered sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 The NAM has been consistently a fair bit warmer than the Euro, GFS, and Canadian with this. It's a major difference in ground truth for us LSV folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 35 here as well. I am not sure about this one but it would at least be nice to see maybe 30 mins of the white rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Temp responding pretty quickly despite a fair amount of clouds - up to 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The NAM has been consistently a fair bit warmer than the Euro, GFS, and Canadian with this. It's a major difference in ground truth for us LSV folks. Yep it has, but as a short term model, it has to have some weight, and as the GFS known cool bias, if one blends the 2, IMO its a reasonable solution...even if not the solution many want. Flag hoisted though as it is an outlier, so you may be right. As we've never been in the game for this one, I'm just discussing weather on a weatherboard and while I want it to be wrong...as we are getting into the snow season, I (like others) like the NAM and am hoping we can trust it when the show really starts....if ya know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Elliott at MU: Rain will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from west-to-east between 2-5 p.m. this afternoon but should quickly change over to a period of wet snow N/W of I-81 and along South Mountain. How far south/east wet snow occurs will depend greatly on precipitation rates.. Higher rates will result in more efficient dynamic and evaporational cooling, and vice versa. Still, I don't expect more than a few slushy spots on secondary roadways, especially in the higher terrain. However, a coating to 2" of snow is possible on non-paved surfaces.. Any wet snow is most likely between 4-8 p.m. and may lead to areas of lower visibility. Make sure to reduce speed and increase following distance during the afternoon commute to minimize the risk of hydroplaning. For York and LanCo, precip. should fall as plain rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The NAM has been consistently a fair bit warmer than the Euro, GFS, and Canadian with this. It's a major difference in ground truth for us LSV folks. This AM's Euro was pretty warm where it pertains to snow. A lot of mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This AM's Euro was pretty warm where it pertains to snow. A lot of mix We got the 0z nice suite of thump again followed by the bounce back to the previous solutions. Just a bit too early for snow, but nice to see it nearby. I'm not all that pessimistic on this winter like some are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This AM's Euro was pretty warm where it pertains to snow. A lot of mix I believe the euro 06z was a tick colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: We got the 0z nice suite of thump again followed by the bounce back to the previous solutions. Just a bit too early for snow, but nice to see it nearby. I'm not all that pessimistic on this winter like some are. Rgem goes crazy for the western LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Rgem goes crazy for the western LSV Rousing event for Rouzerville? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 GFS 10-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I believe the euro 06z was a tick colder off hour....we toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem goes crazy for the western LSV Looks like I'm on the 1-2 inch line LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 GFS is a wet dream for us folks over here US 15 and west. if only... RGEM agress but not that it means too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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