Greensnow Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 And so it begins in NEPA BGM Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 CXY at a crazy 73 and threatening 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: CXY at a crazy 73 and threatening 74. It’s gross. I’m wearing shorts and a T-shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s gross. I’m wearing shorts and a T-shirt. Well to me, that part is a good side effect vs. it being 55 and stuck in between. Either cold or warm so clothes choices are easy. It is so warm and humid I had to shut all my windows despite the great breeze. Everything in the house was getting moist feeling. The NWS zones are really lacking not discussing this. They just talk about the probably temp around daybreak tomorrow. Its going to be in or near the 70's until 3-5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Well to me, that part is a good side effect vs. it being 55 and stuck in between. Either cold or warm so clothes choices are easy. It is so warm and humid I had to shut all my windows despite the great breeze. Everything in the house was getting moist feeling. The NWS zones are really lacking not discussing this. They just talk about the probably temp around daybreak tomorrow. Its going to be in or near the 70's until 3-5AM. This is a family board, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Re: The 70s temps and near 70 dewpoints in the LSV, one has to remember the source region of this event which is the remnants of a tropical system and the associated warmth and humidity being drawn directly up from the tropics via southerly flow by the approaching frontal boundary. A relatively rare set up for nearly Mid-November since tropical systems much less a low end landfalling hurricane being drawn up the East Coast don’t come along very often this time of the year. This is very evident looking at PWAT anomalies, as the true tropical source region has had PWATs in the 1.5-2” inch range during this event. That’s good for being in the +3 to 5 sigma range for this time of the year (a highly anomalous event). The anomalies associated with the back end pushing into western and central PA currently are even greater than that. In addition to the warmth and humidity, there’s likely to be some overachieving rain totals this evening via torrential downpours as this frontal boundary pushes and brings the remnant core of Nicole up through PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: This is a family board, sir. I actually thought of that when posting but tried to slip it by you, Atomic and Training. Failure in rou'ville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Re: The 70s temps and near 70 dewpoints in the LSV, one has to remember the source region of this event which is the remnants of a tropical system and the associated warmth and humidity being drawn directly up from the tropics via southerly flow by the approaching frontal boundary. A relatively rare set up for nearly Mid-November since tropical systems much less a low end landfalling hurricane being drawn up the East Coast don’t come along very often this time of the year. This is very evident looking at PWAT anomalies, as the true tropical source region has had PWATs in the 1.5-2” inch range during this event. That’s good for being in the +3 to 5 sigma range for this time of the year (a highly anomalous event). The anomalies associated with the back end pushing into western and central PA currently are even greater than that. In addition to the warmth and humidity, there’s likely to be some overachieving rain totals this evening via torrential downpours as this frontal boundary pushes and brings the remnant core of Nicole up through PA. I think much of the fascination is that for the umpteenth time recently the models and NWS zones were about 5 degrees too low in their depictions. I saw little to no 70 forecasts on the mesos' I looked at yet much of the LSV is now in the mid 70's. DP's of 70 now encroaching into the SW LSV and CXY at 74 degrees real temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Heavy rain being registered on the weather station at home. Also pressure down to 996mb 1.32”/hr rate and 2.2” total 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Just now, MAG5035 said: Heavy rain being registered on the weather station at home. Also pressure down to 996mb 1.32”/hr rate and 2.2” total Great to see you back to posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 It’s that magical time of the year when I am looking forward to the 0z NAM! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Feels good to be back. I'm ready to over-analyze any and all model runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: Feels good to be back. I'm ready to over-analyze any and all model runs. How is the NoGaps looking for Tue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Surprised CTP doesn’t even have any flood advisory products up. Scanner app has lit up with all sorts of flooding issues in the usual trouble spots in the Altoona and surrounding area. Up to 2.89” on the rain gauge. Had a max rate of about 1.7”/ hour at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Bob chill jr? I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 For anyone interested, the 611 steam locomotive is running at Strasburg today. I believe it is the second largest operational steam locomotive in the country. It is certainly a site to behold. And who knows, maybe a guest appearance by our resident train expert Itstrainingtime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 58 here this AM. Midnight (probable for rest of Sat) high here was 71. MDT's high was also 71 coming up one degree short of tying the record. Today will also come in AN at MDT leaving them between 10-11 degrees AN going into the second half of the month. Can they chop it down all the way to even? LNS 70 MDT 70 (after midnight temps rose again) CXY 72 or 73. Rain seemed minimal at all the stations. 1/4 or 1/3" type stuff. We had 1/3" since 10PM. More rain could be on tap this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 I guess summer is over again...2nd time in 2 weeks that we had the ac on to sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I guess summer is over again...2nd time in 2 weeks that we had the ac on to sleep. It will be on at least one more night here getting into the mid or upper 60's today. My house takes a couple nights to cool down. This seems late for AC but just 2 years ago it was 76 at MDT for 2 days around this time of the month. CMC and Nam are the snow huggers model of choice this Am. LOL. Would be nice to see some flakes falling out of the sky and not just on the political news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It will be on at least one more night here getting into the mid or upper 60's today. My house takes a couple nights to cool down. This seems late for AC but just 2 years ago it was 76 at MDT for 2 days around this time of the month. CMC and Nam are the snow huggers model of choice this Am. LOL. Would be nice to see some flakes falling out of the sky and not just on the political news. The 0z Canadian did indeed look like the model of choice for the Tuesday night snow chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 The 0z Canadian then has another snow chance on Sunday night with a low that passes to our south. This storm has shown up off & on some model runs this week. I am just looking for first flakes this week & maybe a car topper if lucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Canadian then has another snow chance on Sunday night with a low that passes to our south. This storm has shown up off & on some model runs this week. I am just looking for first flakes this week & maybe a car topper if lucky. For those that may be new here, this is a Blizz Car Topper 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Real windy this am. Gusting to 38. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 2.69" was the Tamaqua total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For those that may be new here, this is a Blizz Car Topper Lol! Bring it! I truly would be happy with a dusting tho week to get it started! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: 2.69" was the Tamaqua total. Your other state has "been in the news" the last 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 59 degrees, currently winds calm. Total - storm total was 3.16” of rain. Picked up 1.76 overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 With the additional rain overnight, I’m at 1.97 for the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: With the additional rain overnight, I’m at 1.97 for the event. You blew me away being under 1" here. Edit-i posted this before checking my gauge from this am. Ended up around 1.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 CTP is announcing the pattern change is here: SYNOPSIS... A significant pattern change from very warm to persistent cold will unfold across Pennsylvania in the wake of a heavy rain event associated with the remnants of Nicole. Periods of rain and snow showers are expected over the western and central Alleghenies this afternoon into tonight with a light snow accumulation in the favored snowbelts and higher elevations through Monday. Mixed precipitation could impact the area later Tuesday into Wednesday. The colder pattern is expected to have staying power with high confidence in below normal temperatures through next week. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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