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New England heavy rain event Sept 5/6 2022. Does this end the summer drought?


wxeyeNH
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18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Coming back home to Dover NH from eastern Long Island. On the cross island ferry right now, about halfway from new London. Will be arriving in new London in 30 min. Pissed seeing the training and flooding. Not sure if I’m worse off going 395 from new London or through providence on 495.

395

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27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2022-09-05_18-05-46.png

There is a nice pool of low level moisture over much of SNE, but the best surface convergence through the low levels is across CT, then arcs northeast along the coastal front/sea breeze. The convergence is also stronger in CT than along the coastal front. It's really slamming in from the south.

You should be a teacher. All your explanations are clear, concise and easy to understand.

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3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The guidance certainly wants to fill CT in, especially early morning hours, but I think it will be tough to move the heaviest out of the corridor you see setting up on radar now (from DXR to IJD).

Agreed with this ...

I've been writing about this for a couple days here and elsewhere, that the synoptic forcing in this is/was weak, but there is huge parametric situational surplussing with PWAT's exceeding 2" ivo of a convergence - same idea.   I also mentioned that this would require a mode switch rad but that's old school - it sounds like there's new tech in the field ( just based upon what you've said) that determines the nature of drop physicality?  That's fascinating.   ...InCREdibly nerdy but interesting nonetheless. 

In terms of modeling performance - you know I've seen this before ...  There really is a gap where big parameters coincide with weak forcing; sometimes it does, and some times does not bring hell. But you're right - the models splashing 8" totals.  I spoke about that earlier, that it doesn't mean no big event just because the continuity sucks.  It seems this is more about where we are in technology/modeling - the existence is as important in the runs.   

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero chance he’s not back next year. He wins the MVP which is a lock .. it’s going to be a record contract . Yanks brass gambled and lost. He gambled on himself and will not only get to stay in NY where he wants to play , but also walks away with a record deal . I know so many Sox fans that are rooting for him. You simply can’t root against him. He’s just that good of a guy . He is exactly what baseball needed . He has brought back so many that gave up on the best game there is 

This Sox fan is one of them.  He’s a very likeable guy.  He’s earned respect too… he’s like a Jeter in that regard that he’s immune from the Red Sox fan base hate that comes with the rivalry.  Certain players transcend that.   I hope Judge gets it.

Back up in VT now… a few hundredths maybe?  Was raining the whole way most of the time until about Montpelier.  Dried out last 20-30 min of the ride.

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11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

strange that got a weenie. prove me wrong

 

Yeah, as I stated earlier, the hrrr is nailing the cutoff area. Not much going on from About Norton to scituate and all areas southeast.

It doesn’t really fill it in either for the rest of the event. The stuff in RI pretty much just spins in place

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