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September 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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High of 59 at TH arpt yesterday with 45 this morning. High of 63 here in town yesterday with 47 this morning. Mid 60's right now. When it's the warmer season, its cooler by the lake, then it runs opposite as we start entering the colder season.

The summer weather next week will feel nice. Get as much as I can as there is not much left. 

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off.  Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks.  The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard.

 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We could use some rain.

This past weekend was supposed to be a wet one in the area. Pops in the 60% or higher and precipitable water in the one inch range. While a few areas got that, in my backyard only recorded 0.01" of rain holding true to the summer trend. I really need some water here.

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ORD is going to make it through the first week of September with no measurable precip (and really, it will go past that).  The last time that happened was in 2015, though I'd point out that September 2021 had 0.01" through the first 16 days of the month, with that little bit of precip coming on 9/3.

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4 hours ago, bowtie` said:

 

This past weekend was supposed to be a wet one in the area. Pops in the 60% or higher and precipitable water in the one inch range. While a few areas got that, in my backyard only recorded 0.01" of rain holding true to the summer trend. I really need some water here.

 

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We could use some rain.

Same. Three days in a row with a T on my precipitation report.

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Models have converged on a similar scenario this weekend into next week.  It appears there will be widespread 1-3" of rain under the deformation zone with some areas receiving 4-6".  Every model shows this now.  Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of a major screw zone.  This morning's Euro does exactly that for southeast Iowa.  The Euro is very strong and stalls the low right over me or just west.  Southeast Iowa gets major dry-slotted while a ton of rain falls to the nw.

The UK, on the other hand, has eastern Iowa near the western edge of the heavy stuff.  The Canadian has 1-3" from Nebraska through Michigan.  An average of the current models would be fine, but that Euro scares me.

image.thumb.png.6b758c139bc01065550ee82301eb211c.png

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I was looking at the Summer chart for our region, and I added 1 std dev to it, and sure enough, we tend to have more average to above average summers than average to below average ones when using the 20th century as a baseline. Just an interesting tid bit. And you can also see the number of years outside that range.

Midwest summer anom chrt std dev.gif

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Great day today, sun mixed with building cu field and temps in the 80s. 

Big change on the way for tomorrow when temps have a hard time getting out of the 50s with rain much of the day.  Models are bouncing around where the heaviest rains will fall, but feel good about getting well over an inch here.  Looks like southern WI has the best chance at 3"+.

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A mini-sup passed by a little while ago.  Was undercut by the passing cold front but the meso was cranking pretty nicely.  Didn't expect to see that from the backyard today.  

Short time lapse with phone.  Wall cloud early on, then undercut by cold front, and after about the 40 sec mark you can see meso cranking on right side of screen after cold front clouds pass by.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPpZjS4X1Uw

 

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