WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 I love this one. Models have coalesced around tropical genesis along a decaying boundary in the north central Atlantic. Still has work to do, but with a favorable environment, this should develop. I think this beats 91L to a name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 The real question: Does it form before midnight tonight to spoil the 0/0/0 for August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 Looks like the race is on between the two invests this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 So per the above tweet, the chance for an August TC ends if this isn't a TD by 8 PM EDT this evening because when it becomes a TD as opposed to when it becomes named is the most important milestone and also they use UTC. That will determine if August is a TC shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Look healthy enough on visible, solid rotation on lower level clouds but most of the heavy convection is displaced off to the right of the center but may be trying to wrap around, If it can wrap around fast enough we should be able to break the 0/0/0 August we are in. Probably going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Going to be quite the race today to see if this is classified. Just based on satellite presentation right now I’d be betting it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Would be absolutely comical if the LAST possible advisory for August featured a system 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Would be absolutely comical if the LAST possible advisory for August featured a system If that happens they should name the system Rich Strike - that horse that almost no one expected to win the Kentucky Derby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 I don't see it getting classified tonight as storms can't maintain around center due to shear. Maybe tomorrow which means August will be a shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 TD Five was declared at 0500 AST, so it really was a photo finish for August futility at least in terms of absolute TCG, although not named storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Forecast to be a hurricane in 2 days. 0/0/0 September may not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 This one will be fun to track. Our first hurricane is going to be a September high latitude system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This one will be fun to track. Our first hurricane is going to be a September high latitude system lol. I must say the 5 day map is kinda funny... almost looks like it says shhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Folks, we have liftoff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Mighty impressive. Surely upwelling will hold back intensity for the next couple days though? Or does the subtropical structure negate this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Mighty impressive. Surely upwelling will hold back intensity for the next couple days though? Or does the subtropical structure negate this? This looks fully tropical to me. Upwelling may be a factor, but there’s a little OHC up there and the waters are anomalously warm—which may be contributing to why the MDR is a tire fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 It’s actually found itself in a pretty good spot (really an island) of moderately warm water and good upper level divergent flow. Looks to be on its way to being our first hurricane of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 If it becomes a hurricane, it would be one of the furthest north forming hurricanes on record. The only other one I could find in the NOAA database is Lisa (1998) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation. The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory prediction and lies between the model consensus aids. Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters. Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s actually found itself in a pretty good spot (really an island) of moderately warm water and good upper level divergent flow. Looks to be on its way to being our first hurricane of the year. The opposite of everything else so far this season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 It is fitting what will probably be the first hurricane of the year is a threat only to shipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Lol mega fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Pretty good structure on this one. Cool evolution. Mid latitude cane formation always interests me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Danielle is working on establishing a CDO this afternoon. Definitely some light to moderate shear but it’s also helping to establish a divergent, venting flow aloft which really helps these mid latitude systems over slightly cooler set’s. Everything continues to progress nicely for a decent little fish hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Danielle is working on establishing a CDO this afternoon. Definitely some light to moderate shear but it’s also helping to establish a divergent, venting flow aloft which really helps these mid latitude systems over slightly cooler set’s. Everything continues to progress nicely for a decent little fish hurricane Look at this microwave imagery! We have a special advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Would be funny to watch Danielle become our first MH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Would be funny to watch Danielle become our first MH It has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has a chance. I know... just we've been waiting for the MDR and rest of the ATL to do something and Danielle way up north shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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