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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Nasty day with the wind here in West Asheville. Some flurry/snizzle action at times. Looking long range, I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel for the mountains and adjacent foothills. Yes the next 10 days to 2 weeks are going to be warm but I think we switch to colder in March. 

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1 hour ago, WxKnurd said:

Yep that’s what I had, coming in waves.  Left the house at 6:30 am with rain and a temp about 60, get back at 4:45 to snow in the upper 20’s.  Love our crazy weather days.

Yep I was just saying 60s this morning and 20s already.  Over a 30 degree drop in less than 12 hours. Impressive for sure.

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On 2/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, BooneWX said:

I know this is an out there sort of comment but is anyone mildly concerned the snowfall in the mountains tonight is toxic?

You were concerned for good reason sir! 

 https://www.infowars.com/posts/toxic-clouds-spew-down-acid-rain-following-ohio-train-derailment-reports-claim/

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10 minutes ago, K4CF said:

No sooner did I say it, I started seeing countless videos and reports of people reacting to the chemical smells and yellow rain falling in the north east and mid Atlantic. I certainly was never going to trust the company responsible for the disaster to confirm that it’s safe lol.

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 I know it is way out there in fantasyland (11-14 days) on an operational model and thus is for entertainment only and will understandably make some laugh. But for the record: if the 18Z were to somehow happen to have the right idea, the mountains would be hammered by upslope snow on and off during March 4th-7th.

 Regardless of the atrocious nature of the models this winter as well as the mildness of this winter to date overall, we still are the better part of a week away from when the recent major SSW can possibly first affect the tropospheric pattern. That SSW combined with an additional strong 60N 10 mb wind reversal progged for a week from now make things much more unpredictable than normal on Feb 21st when looking ahead to March. This is especially the case when considering the insistence of the models on a strong -NAO, which is very likely being caused by the SSW. Keep in mind that just five days ago, the GEFS mean had had the +NAO fall only to neutral in very late Feb/early March vs solidly negative on today's run. A lot has changed and still can change from what current runs, including ens means, are showing.

Edit: It is the Happy Hour run. So, the GFS could just be drunk. 

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