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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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5 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

You know whats crazy is Asheville is in the Winter Weather Advisory and also the Winter Storm Warning and you go look at the hourly its all rain.  I'm confused on all this.  Guess they're not really sure what it's going to do

The issuances are really for 3500ft and up.

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That's what I was thinking as well but when it list the cities it has Asheville , Candler and everyone around close to Asheville, default_poster_oops.gif
That's just automated when they generate the warning. The system automatically includes any cities within the warning area (in this case the county) without regard for elevation.

Can't really do what they do in upstate SC and issue only half the county because the higher elevations are scattered around everywhere and not just in one section.

It's a super common problem with FFC and the northern Georgia counties too.

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Who knows if we have enough time to trend far enough but all guidance has ticked back south and east this morning. If it goes far enough that deform band will have a much better angle of approach into the area. Things are bleak, but I'm gonna stay hopeful for a surprise given that the dynamics are at least in place to produce one.

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Who knows if we have enough time to trend far enough but all guidance has ticked back south and east this morning. If it goes far enough that deform band will have a much better angle of approach into the area. Things are bleak, but I'm gonna stay hopeful for a surprise given that the dynamics are at least in place to produce one.

Hopefully it shifts south about 100 miles. March 09 did that at the last minute and became vertically stacked as it ran up 85

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24 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Still a dry slot showing up on the 12z models for the southern mtns. Amazing we can have 80-100" of rain fall almost every year, but it's a struggle for 1" of that to fall as snow

Models seem to struggle with deform bands / dry slots. So who knows we definitely still have a chance for a 2-4” event to happen down this way. With that being said it’s probably dead right and will be lucky to get a dusting.

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10 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Models seem to struggle with deform bands / dry slots. So who knows we definitely still have a chance for a 2-4” event to happen down this way. With that being said it’s probably dead right and will be lucky to get a dusting.

As we pickup 5 plus inches of rain over the next week

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