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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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The very end of the 18z NAM. Yes I know it at range but we are just analyzing at this point.ref1km_ptype.us_ma.thumb.jpg.7216998ccc1c1b65ba01b0981957eb4f.jpg

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It looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC.
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Just now, Hvward said:


It looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC.

Yeah no kidding! This is a classic synoptic look for us. We can get big snows from this type setup but it's been years since we've had one roll through that looks like this.

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Something definitely off with that run. At H5 and with the surface low it continued to tick towards the other guidance with the slower/west trend. But the precip map is just bonkers. 1004 mbar low over Savannah to a 1002 over Charleston and somehow almost no precip in the mountains. The physics don't even add up.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Short range Canadian is usually one of the coldest models. Its one of the warmest so far for this potential event 

prateptype-imp.us_ma.png

If this could go just a few frames more I still think it would look really good in the mountains, the 850's are just starting to crash. It is even slower than the Euro, notice the surface low still in SW GA while most other guidance is around Hilton Head at the same time. 

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Gotta remember the GEFS under-dispersal problem as well. The GEFS will always somewhat resemble the OP to some extent because of this. The key is to try and see through the noise and if there's a large number of members are fighting against the OP's idea, which its clear there is. GFS led the way in sniffing out this threat, but its now been left on an island in terms of timing and placement of the heaviest precip. 

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21 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

18z euro was warmer aloft through 12z Sunday. Shifted everything west a little.

Euro control looks like a decent estimation of what that run would look like rolled forward. Not terrible for the mountain counties, but far from ideal. That eastern cutoff moves further west, and East-Central Tennessee ends up the big winner as far as the south is concerned. Hopefully we're just seeing some of the windshield wiper effect and it'll start ticking back eastward over the next couple days. 

 

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