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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Yeah a complete miss on temps today. Much colder than forecasted. Very little melting at all today. 
I missed the other way. Had a forecast high of 34 and topped out at 44. And I'd be willing to bet I'm not dropping much further than the current 39 before another inversion kicks in.

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11 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

A few inches. I still had 10 or 11 by sundown, but I can hear water in the gutter downspouts as I type. I'm at 40 right now, well see how much melts overnight.

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Dang that's crazy.  We are sitting at 25 already... Everything is frozen in again.  

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21 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Beautiful! Had a low of 19 this morning...

Good Lord, at 7 am it was 38.7 over here.  I know you are in a bowl but either the inversion setup crazy fast in our 300’ elevation difference or one didn’t setup over on your ridge.   Saw 24 down in the valley last night while my weather station was reading 34 (thinking it could have been reading a few degrees to warm as the snow was stiffened up and melt water was frozen and my usually accurate truck thermometer was reading 28).

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Just now, WxKnurd said:

Good Lord, at 7 am it was 38.7 over here.  I know you are in a bowl but either the inversion setup crazy fast in our 300’ elevation difference or one didn’t setup over on your ridge.   Saw 24 down in the valley last night while my weather station was reading 34 (thinking it was reading a few degrees to warm as the snow was stiffened up and melt water was frozen and my usually accurate truck thermometer was reading 28).

I know that short of a distance and that big of a temp spread is ridiculous.  We had a heavy frost also. Almost looked like it snowed on the truck.... These microclimates can get crazy around here. I think what helps me is that we are in a bowl but the valley is directly in front of me. I think that helps to filter the cold in and out for us. We don't get trapped with the inversion in my opinion.  But all that could just be BS lol.

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I know that short of a distance and that big of a temp spread is ridiculous.  We had a heavy frost also. Almost looked like it snowed on the truck.... These microclimates can get crazy around here. I think what helps me is that we are in a bowl but the valley is directly in front of me. I think that helps to filter the cold in and out for us. We don't get trapped with the inversion in my opinion.  But all that could just be BS lol.

It makes sense in my head lol.  A year in and I’m still learning the nuances of my new location. 

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Highly suggest the mountain and foothills crew checkout the pattern thread in the TN Valley forum if you aren’t already, Carver does great write-ups.  Outside of Larry (GAwx) on our side, their pattern discussion blows our forum’s away right now. Lot more info discussed regardless of good or bad pattern, lot less whining.

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1 hour ago, WxKnurd said:

Highly suggest the mountain and foothills crew checkout the pattern thread in the TN Valley forum if you aren’t already, Carver does great write-ups.  Outside of Larry (GAwx) on our side, their pattern discussion blows our forum’s away right now. Lot more info discussed regardless of good or bad pattern, lot less whining.

Yeah Carver, John, and Holston do a great job over there. I definitely check them out daily.

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Obviously the upcoming pattern in the medium range isn't some honking SE snow pattern but I generally like the look at least for our area. Definitely gonna be some cutters but I think the TN valley/upper SE/southern apps are in as good a spot as can be given the background state this winter. Get one of these cutters to track into the 50/50 region to give the SE ridge a shove and get the Arctic boundary just far enough south to put us on the cold side of a trailing overrunning event. 

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33 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Obviously the upcoming pattern in the medium range isn't some honking SE snow pattern but I generally like the look at least for our area. Definitely gonna be some cutters but I think the TN valley/upper SE/southern apps are in as good a spot as can be given the background state this winter. Get one of these cutters to track into the 50/50 region to give the SE ridge a shove and get the Arctic boundary just far enough south to put us on the cold side of a trailing overrunning event. 

Obviously we aren't in a great pattern now and we still managed to see snow accumulations from 1 inch all the way up to 2 feet. Really it only takes a few storms to make our average around here and the foothills.  Hopefully we get a synoptic storm but this pattern currently is more conducive for upslope flow snow. 

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Also a few things. The gfs and gefs have switched from torch to getting some really cold air into the continent.  Also Canada becomes an icebox which is great for us for our cold source. Also the euro and eps continue to look good.  A bit of kicking the pattern down the road but im afraid the pac will not settle down until Spring... 

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