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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Yep spoke too soon. My bad. This is a dang great run for the border counties.  Totals are upped a bit more than the 12z. With the trough sharpening more and digging it throws more moisture right into the mountains for about 30 plus hours.  A great look from the gfs for us. I really hope we get hammered. 
Best gfs run yet for the border imo! Up to 14" here.

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I guess until you get up into the high elevations of Maryland and North Carolina this region is not a good place to sit and wish for snow. It never snows at all where I am.
 

But I do look forward to spring. The sun is already going down 20 minutes later than it did in early December. I look forward to Mid February because my belief is that that is when it starts becoming spring like warm in the southeast especially below 1000 feet.

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6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Are you directing that post at me????

No not at all but there is a lot of meltdowns this weekend and people canceling winter already when we are just in the first of January.  Seems like we go through this same song and dance every damn year even though most people's average snowfall is minimal.  

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3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

No not at all but there is a lot of meltdowns this weekend and people canceling winter already when we are just in the first of January.  Seems like we go through this same song and dance every damn year even though most people's average snowfall is minimal.  

That’s what makes me chuckle and shake my head somewhat, if anyone should be complaining about this winter to date it’s us mountain, and to a lesser extent, foothill folks, especially above 3000’ in the border counties.  Beech and sugar are something like 40” behind average right now, we haven’t even had a legit “region wide” flow snow yet and the SW mountains have barely had anything.  

Looking objectively, we had cold sooner this season (October, November and December all had spells) as it took until this week last year to have any real cold temps looking back at my data from my weather station and the only region wide decent synoptic storm that wasn’t flow snow related didn’t occur until MLK weekend.  Historically it’s been eh the past few years but this year is at least off to a better start compared to last year.

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16 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

That’s what makes me chuckle and shake my head somewhat, if anyone should be complaining about this winter to date it’s us mountain, and to a lesser extent, foothill folks, especially above 3000’ in the border counties.  Beech and sugar are something like 40” behind average right now, we haven’t even had a legit “region wide” flow snow yet and the SW mountains have barely had anything.  

Looking objectively, we had cold sooner this season (October, November and December all had spells) as it took until this week last year to have any real cold temps looking back at my data from my weather station and the only region wide decent synoptic storm that wasn’t flow snow related didn’t occur until MLK weekend.  Historically it’s been eh the past few years but this year is at least off to a better start compared to last year.

Could not have put it any better. My exact thoughts about this year so far. Besides minimal snow I give this cold season a B so far because of the colder Fall and extreme temps we just had. Very well put.

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Overnight suites still look very good. The euro was much more robust with the northern vort coming down so the totals were upped a good bit more and much more colder. We are 4 days out and this is exactly what we want to see from the euro.

The cmc still looks like a nice hit for the mountains. 

The gfs still looks good.  Back off of totals a bit but still a strong signal there and that's about all you can ask for from that model.

Also all three of the big three ensembles look great for a pattern change around the 20th. The eps and cmc looks great.  The gfs is getting there but we know it's a broken model currently.... 

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That’s what makes me chuckle and shake my head somewhat, if anyone should be complaining about this winter to date it’s us mountain, and to a lesser extent, foothill folks, especially above 3000’ in the border counties.  Beech and sugar are something like 40” behind average right now, we haven’t even had a legit “region wide” flow snow yet and the SW mountains have barely had anything.  
Looking objectively, we had cold sooner this season (October, November and December all had spells) as it took until this week last year to have any real cold temps looking back at my data from my weather station and the only region wide decent synoptic storm that wasn’t flow snow related didn’t occur until MLK weekend.  Historically it’s been eh the past few years but this year is at least off to a better start compared to last year.
Good point! Over the 5 previous seasons, my average snowfall total to date is 21.5" and we've received 6.5" thus far.

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Great runs by the cmc and the gfs on the 12z suites. Steady she goes. 
That's what I like to see as we approach short range. Looks like a weekend full of tourists in 2wd vehicles getting stuck up here is on the way. Time to print out the towing info flyers!

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6 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Had a low of 25 just after sundown, currently I'm experiencing my high temperature for the day, 34.2. That's an impressive inversion!

Gotta love mountain weather!

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Im down to 27 currently.  It's been a very slow drop from sunset to now. 33 to 27.

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Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees.  A lot colder than forecasted. 

Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. 

Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall. 

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