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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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22 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Completely unrelated to our area but the short range guidance for Buffalo and the Southtowns is borderline apocalyptic. 

Friday Night
Good lord!
 
 
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a southwest wind 39 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 32 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 

Screen Shot 2022-12-22 at 12.09.57 PM.png

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7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Folks at Foothills weather don't have us gettung below 10. I think they are wrong on this one. We should easily see single digits even in Marion. 

Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend. 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend. 

NWS has me for a low of zero tonight, 2 for the high tomorrow and -3 for Saturday morning.  Don’t go back above freezing until sometime Tuesday per the point and click.  There’s a strong possibility those of us above 3500’ could be single digits or below for 24 hours straight if the HRRR pans out or even “worse” and it’s on the high side.

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18z HRRR has a minimum of - 14 in Boone.
-19 on Beech.

Max wind gust of 71MPH in Boone.

They've actually shut Beech down for the next 2 days due to the conditions.

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Geez that's **does math** a wind chill value of -55° in Boone! I thought the -42 in my forecast was impressive.

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HRRR is almost definitely overdone but -20 to -30 wind chills are possible in Boone. Above 5K there could be -50 or worse. It will be interesting to see how low it goes compared to the guidance. 
The almost definitely part is what concerns me.

Probably overdone on temps but those kind of wind gusts aren't exactly unheard of. I believe the record is in the mid-70mph range. Even gusts of 60-65 would be problematic. Any power outages could be hard to reach with downed trees and a flash freeze.

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Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies.  Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently.  There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas. 

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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies.  Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently.  There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas. 

I’m down in Waynesville but my station is showing 40. Man if I hit -9 or 10 as modeled with this front, your place will be -15 I bet. 

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