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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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10 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t this Thursday system really similar to what we seen Christmas 2020. If memory serves right that event trended better in the last 48 hours.

Yes very very similar except this cold blast is way more potent and has some staying power.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero.

I’m doing my preparations today and tomorrow since I’m leaving Saturday morning to ho down to Hickory til Monday.  Only one outside hose bib to worry about but all faucets are gonna be dripping water when I leave.

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Latest 12z GFS says Beech mtn goes below zero by 8am Friday and stays below zero for 26 hours.
I usually like to walk around taking photos during snowy weather. I think may stay instead this round if reality is anywhere close to this.9b0f68d932cf47fe764d1928d7234042.jpga531cba0d13acca8271b4f59d2c39b2e.jpg

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9 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

I’m doing my preparations today and tomorrow since I’m leaving Saturday morning to ho down to Hickory til Monday.  Only one outside hose bib to worry about but all faucets are gonna be dripping water when I leave.

Easy on the ho down to Hickory this is a kid friendly site lol.

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29 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Completed the winterizing at the Cabin yesterday. I have guests arriving there tomorrow and it is booked throughout the rest of the Holidays. 

I'm keeping a keen eye on Sunday night/Monday as a trailing shortwave energizes a NW Gulf low that heads our way.

I will be at Warrensville at a Cabin from 23-25 leaving Monday morn by check out time. 
It will be interesting to see what I find accumulation wise.  Everyone is saying 1-3 on the Apps. Gonna be a tough drive from Hazlehurst Ga Friday before we arrive that late afternoon. 

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4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


I’m thinking around 10 is the lowest I’ll get in the foothills. At least in my location.


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Yeah yall will flirt with single digits.  At this moment im thinking one of us will make it to at least negative 5 to negative 10 here in the mountains especially if you have some snow on the ground. 

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I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains.  Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.

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I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains.  Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.
Looking at the 3km NAM a quick change to snow with the actual frontal passage appears pretty likely. I'm concerned it'll be a bit moisture starved but ratios will go from 0-100 real quick.

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1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

Looking at the 3km NAM a quick change to snow with the actual frontal passage appears pretty likely. I'm concerned it'll be a bit moisture starved but ratios will go from 0-100 real quick.

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Yeah the changeover will not be gradually.  It's going to turnaround on a dime.

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Also just a bit of fun but even with the lack of snow possibly this is a historic event and it will be a memorable event.

To see temperatures this cold with windchills that we are going to see and the dramatic temperature drop is something we rarely see here.

This is a rare event especially in December.  Possible record breaking pressure in Montana. Make no mistake about the shear size of this event across the country. 

We will have wind chill warnings and high wind advisories and high wind warnings also. If you by chance you see a changeover to snow then you'll likely see some brief blizzard conditions locally...

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Ice, ice baby!

Haywood-Transylvania-
Including the city of Waynesville
339 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. A light glaze is expected at
  elevations above 3500 feet.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet over the Balsam Mountains in Haywood
  and Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.
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Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone,
Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville,
Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale,
Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington,
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista,
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix,
Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo,
and Rainelle
338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and/or ice
  accumulations from freezing rain of around one tenth of an
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North
  Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central
  Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.
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And this is exactly what I was talking about last night. This watch is from Andrews south.  Today or tomorrow the rest of the mountains will be issued something similar. 

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low
  as 15 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 below
  zero in higher elevations.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee
  and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.
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