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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

 

Oh yeah im not giving up but all the models have been atrocious with this pattern setup even the damn Euro. It's not the king because in the mid range it was clueless especially on the PAC side. The gfs really has been very consistent the past few days with the euro literature moving lows 700 miles from run to run. We very well may see something pop once we get 2 to 3 days from a system coming through.  Seems like the more upgrades the worst the models get...

I agree completely man. Model's appear to have gotten worse over the last couple years. 

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Also don't look now but the nam is really wanting to do something with the system on the 20th. Giving several mountain counties some frozen precipitation even down into part of the foothills.  This is kind of what im talking about sneaky little systems showing up in under 3 days...
Classic case of globals severely underestimating the northern precip shield.

Nothing has changed since 2014 with that trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see totals go up even more.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk


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Just now, wncsnow said:

Don't think this upcoming pattern is the one. Probably best to blow it up with a warmup and start over in January. 

Was just thinking the same thing. My biggest fear from the start was that the push of cold would be too much. When people started talking about the piece of the polar vortex breaking off, I had a bad feeling. It’s such a balancing act and this surge is just too overwhelming to kick off anything meaningful in our area. I’d love to see one good classic setup in Jan or February where we can get a sprawling high over upstate NY and rely on  true CAD. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all.

Totally understand about January and February but this pattern was to be so great just hate to see all this cold and no storm.  I thought we were almost a lock on about three different storms that surely one of those would give us the goods.  At one time I thought we might even get hit with two storms.  Just ashame.

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7 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Totally understand about January and February but this pattern was to be so great just hate to see all this cold and no storm.  I thought we were almost a lock on about three different storms that surely one of those would give us the goods.  At one time I thought we might even get hit with two storms.  Just ashame.

Disclaimer this whole post is my opinion and I hope no one takes offense...

Oh I understand the frustration but our climate is and has changed.  Im not getting into the whole global warming but the numbers are there, the lack of snowfall is there. I think there are a lot of variables at play and really we are in uncharted territory when it comes to our current climate. Not being pessimistic but just stating things are different and we have to be knowledgeable of those differences in todays time.  

 

Also I think the models are sh!t currently.  Recently the cmc has been scoring way higher than the gfs and the euro in the long to mid range. Gfs has gone by the way side and the euro is not what it used to be. So that makes things extremely difficult because you really don't have a solid all around go to model currently all in my personal opinion though. 

 

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