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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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All in all im happy with todays runs. Everything still looks good from the 15th on. I think in our region we are in the middle.  The battle ground which im fine with. We get most of our best snows right on the line anyways. I see lots of threats for frozen precipitation on the 12z today. Euro is rolling out now. 

Also a nice chilly day today with the temp at 47 currently. 

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13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 12z euro is cold. Colder than the gfs. No storm next week but it brings down colder air further south which means days of upslope in my opinion.  The euro stays cold through the end of the run with a huge high coming down from Canada also at the end.

Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada.

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Dang the 12z eps is a thing of beautiful! I mean we've not seen a look this good in years in my opinion.  I mean this pattern change is on our doorstep.  We are roughly 6 days away from this pattern change for us. Just an absolute beautiful run for us. Storm or no storm this is exciting times coming up. 

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25 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada.

Yeah no kidding! I mean any little change from the above mentioned will change the pattern but dang the euro and the eps is a thing of beauty. 

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00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through.  I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow.  Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold.

image.thumb.png.5852fca583b93f3488f07a67bdb8412e.png

the OP has been on such a wild ride these past few days. It was still painting phantom hurricanes in the Atlantic just a few days ago.
 

 

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

the OP has been on such a wild ride these past few days. It was still painting phantom hurricanes in the Atlantic just a few days ago.
 

 

Yeah I think there has been some serious damage done to the model since this upgrade.  It's behaving erratic and there is no continuity from run to run. To me it's the worst model we have currently. 

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