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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Wind was howling up around Sam’s Knob this evening right before dark.  Temp was 51 when I got back to the truck and 49 around Richland Balsam.  56-57 when I pulled here at the house around an hour ago.  I’ll be way up high there again tomorrow morning, gotta love the first strong cold front in Fall!

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Storm rolled through at my place while I was in Waynesville, could see it lightning while I was driving home.  Was greeted to this tree being down and the transformer flashing about 1/4 mile below the house, had to cut it out of the road with a machete since I didn’t feel like walking up to get my saw.

 

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The Euro has been very consistent in taking the low of Ian right around us or right over us for several runs now but still tropical systems are a completely different beast to predict.  


Yeah I'm concerned about the potential flood risk. We'll see how it evolves though.

Verbatim the Euro is a widespread 4-6" for most of the SW facing slopes (particularly bad for the SW mountains) and the GFS is widespread 2-4". Those are concerning totals from low-res globals at this range.



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Yeah an absolute banger of a day! Current temp is 54 degrees.  Ian's track to me is still up in the air. So many variables come into play. But this weather this week is unbeatable besides a raging snowstorm.  I echo Ace that there are going to be some frosty spots this week. Leaf season will be full bore after this week.

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When I left the house this morning at 4:30 we had gotten down to a crisp 39 degrees.  Several places won't get out if the 50s today. Even colder tonight.  

The overnight model runs looks like 2 to 4 inches plus on the southern escarpment.  Looks like the remnants from hurricane Ian will meander around our area bringing a couple days of rainfall but with this extended dry spell I think that helps with possible flooding.  Still a lot of uncertainty though. 

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Can you post the euro rainfall map?
Here are the 0z Euro and ICON. I got my maps backwards it was the ICON with the more widespread high numbers. Euro still no slouch and you have to figure neither of these models are going to handle the upslope SE slow well at all. 821fa8da66ca55ae193fc0651a521730.jpg81f08298581cd238ed2dd0aad7be40e6.jpg

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34 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

3 to 6 inches still a good possibility. All these last minute changes regarding track are likely not over.

Yeah especially with tropical systems.  We could literally go from getting a ton of rain to barely an inch all depending on strength and track. The longer it meanders in Florida the less potent it will be up here....

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