Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,281
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jvinch
    Newest Member
    Jvinch
    Joined

Fall 2022 Pittsburgh/Western PA Discussion


Ahoff
 Share

Recommended Posts


000
FXUS61 KPBZ 092311
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
611 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through Thursday as high pressure
remains in control. Heavy rainfall is possible Friday as
tropical moisture from Nicole interacts with an approaching cold
front. Much colder temperatures are forecast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong upper high over VA around 590 dm with 270 dm anomally
over SW Ontario continues to keep mild and dry airmass over
Upper Ohio Valley. Surface 1035 mb high over southern New
England has a sharp ridge that extends back along the east slope
of Appalachians. Dew points in the teens and 20s expected to
gradually rise overnight about 10F as noctural decoupling
reduces mixing from very dry air aloft. South to southeast flow
and weak warm advection will result in milder overnight lows
than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure still in control Thursday with a warming trend
in temperatures as ridging shifts eastward across the area.
Thursday night, subtropical storm Nicole will begin to bring
moisture into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low
pressure`s cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible early Friday morning and throughout the day with
between 1.75" to 2.75" currently forecast across the region.
Compounding the heavy rainfall through is the parched ground
that may not be quite as receptive to heavy rainfall. As well,
heavy leaf fall may clog drains in urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Saturday, high pressure will attempt to nose into the region
from the southwest. However, low level west to northwest flow
off of the lake will begin to initiate some showers off the
lake. By Saturday night into Sunday, the core of the colder air
will move into the Upper OH Valley with 850 temps around -8 to
-10 Celsius. A post frontal trough will assist in the
 productions of some snow showers across the northern counties
 Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The potential for
 snow showers will persist through the day on Monday until
 finally, surface high further infiltrates from the west cutting
 off the flow off the lake with dry conditions and cooler than
 normal temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR with light SSE wind is expected through the TAF period
under a ridge of high pressure.

.OUTLOOK....
Restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from
S-N as low pressure, the remnants of tropical system Nicole,
tracks from the SE CONUS to the Upper Ohio Valley region late
Thu night through Fri eve. The low will also phase with a
crossing cold front. Cig restrictions are likely through Mon
under subsequent upper troughing and cold W-NW flow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

Looks like we could get 1.75 to 2.75" of rain, only if it was in the teens and 20s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/9/2022 at 11:31 AM, dj3 said:

Can you imagine the dryslot/p-type concerns we'd be worrying about if the rain storm happening this Friday was happening a month from now? :)

Looks like the global models have shifted back east a bit. Short range still seems to have the heaviest access into eastern OH but either way 1.5 - 2.5 inches looks like a good bet.

Euro for reference:

 qpf_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.522c018e5df1e0a06debc7c94c64edca.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like the global models have shifted back east a bit. Short range still seems to have the heaviest access into eastern OH but either way 1.5 - 2.5 inches looks like a good bet.

Euro for reference:

 qpf_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.522c018e5df1e0a06debc7c94c64edca.png

 

The distribution would be great during winter. I think the track would still be too close for comfort even in winter, it brings the low in pretty close to home.

Check out the wintry 12z GFS extended :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

000
SXUS71 KPBZ 120636 RRA
RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
0134 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PITTSBURGH PA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.36 WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH PA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.72 SET IN 1983.


$$

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coldest morning this morning, and first 20s of the season.  Down to 29.

Maybe we get a little dusting of snow before the warmer air comes in.  Ron Smiley said a few hours of snow in the afternoon.  Granted, it's not at a great time of day for accumulation this early in the season, but at least there could be a small chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting as snowflakes in Robinson. Not expecting much, although the mountains look like they could pick up a few inches. I was hoping a disturbance would pop up in the short range so it wouldn't be cold/dry this weekend but not seeing anything at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, meatwad said:

uaT46KS.png

From the cpa thread

Might just be.  Nice little early season excitement.

Also, obs at the airport are interesting just before noon it was 38 and light snow, now obs are 32 with snow.  Interesting how that heavier burst cooled the air.  Would never happen Dec.-Feb. but nice to see it can happen here, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Might just be.  Nice little early season excitement.

Also, obs at the airport are interesting just before noon it was 38 and light snow, now obs are 32 with snow.  Interesting how that heavier burst cooled the air.  Would never happen Dec.-Feb. but nice to see it can happen here, lol.

Dynamic cooling for the win with the heavy rates. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Dynamic cooling for the win with the heavy rates. 

Probably a bit of wet bulbing going on here, dew points were generally 29-30 degrees when the heavier rates moved in. Nice .25 - .5 inch of wet snow, even started accumulating on shaded pavement briefly. Enough my son had to go outside and play in. :lol: First snowball fight of the season under my belt now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...