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Fall 2022 Pittsburgh/Western PA Discussion


Ahoff
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3 hours ago, TimB said:

Who do I have to sell my soul to for a September that actually feels like fall?

Last year was not egregiously warm, mostly warm lows and 2020 was actually slightly cooler than normal.  So, probably don't to sell to anyone they've been pretty good the last couple years.

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4 hours ago, TimB said:

Speaking of “not egregiously warm” patterns and “mostly warm lows.” When we analyze recent Septembers next year at this time, we’ll see a pattern that wasn’t miserable, but the ground truth is pain.

I'll take the lower highs.  Would like those comfortable lows in the 50s, but what can we do.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I'll take the lower highs.  Would like those comfortable lows in the 50s, but what can we do.

As far as I can tell, the fall record for lows of 60 or above is 16 (13 if you only include the KPIT era). We’re at 5 now, and although we could have a few close calls the next few nights, the official NWS forecast does currently have us tacking on at least another week with no 50s so we could get close.

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18 minutes ago, TimB said:

As far as I can tell, the fall record for lows of 60 or above is 16 (13 if you only include the KPIT era). We’re at 5 now, and although we could have a few close calls the next few nights, the official NWS forecast does currently have us tacking on at least another week with no 50s so we could get close.

As long as the highs generally stay in the 70s I'm good.  Lower humidity would be nice though.

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I think "higher lows" is the more expectant result of climate change, overall.  Regularly hitting new highs and maintaining hotter temps isn't necessarily the most measurable change.  More humidity, higher wet bulbs at a more consistent rate is also an extension of that.  There are a few places on Earth that are actually becoming inhospitable to humans because of their increased and dangerous humidity levels (like locales in Pakistan, for example).

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On 9/13/2022 at 11:31 AM, TimB said:

Second summer arrives this weekend and sticks around for who knows how long. My bet is on longer rather than shorter.

Doesn't look too long.  Mid week next week, then Fall again.  Not too unusual in my opinion.  This month, temperature wise has been pretty average.  Rain wise too much, so this dry stretch is nice.

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On 9/16/2022 at 8:33 AM, Ahoff said:

Doesn't look too long.  Mid week next week, then Fall again.  Not too unusual in my opinion.  This month, temperature wise has been pretty average.  Rain wise too much, so this dry stretch is nice.

Really starting to look like a pretty drastic change mid to late week. This warm stretch doesn’t look unbearable either. 

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On 9/17/2022 at 7:08 PM, Ahoff said:

Yeah, low 60s Friday.  Wow.  Maybe that ex-Typhoon hitting Alaska is the culprit?

NWS blames Fiona for locking in our chilly pattern in their forecast discussion. The Euro makes next week look especially chilly with lots of highs in the 50s. GFS allows the Midwest ridge to encroach a little more and keep us cool but not unseasonably. Of course, by the end of the Euro run, the yet to be named storm is in our backyard, so it seems our weather is going to be heavily influenced by what’s going on in the tropics for the foreseeable future.

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51 minutes ago, TimB said:

NWS blames Fiona for locking in our chilly pattern in their forecast discussion. The Euro makes next week look especially chilly with lots of highs in the 50s. GFS allows the Midwest ridge to encroach a little more and keep us cool but not unseasonably. Of course, by the end of the Euro run, the yet to be named storm is in our backyard, so it seems our weather is going to be heavily influenced by what’s going on in the tropics for the foreseeable future.

Well, thank you Fiona for some Fall weather.  Hopefully it can jump start the leaves changing nicely too.

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5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Well, thank you Fiona for some Fall weather.  Hopefully it can jump start the leaves changing nicely too.

Wonder if we manage and decent storms this evening, seems to have already gotten overcast which will probably limit instability. 

I'm looking forward to the cool weather for sure. Will probably close the pool for the season.

Meanwhile way out in fantasy land GFS has remnants from whatever develops in the gulf taking aim at us with another shot of cold air on the backside. 

 

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5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Wonder if we manage and decent storms this evening, seems to have already gotten overcast which will probably limit instability. 

I'm looking forward to the cool weather for sure. Will probably close the pool for the season.

Meanwhile way out in fantasy land GFS has remnants from whatever develops in the gulf taking aim at us with another shot of cold air on the backside. 

 

Not looking good for storms.  Pretty quiet

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Fall is here! I seem to remember though the weather turned like this part year end of October only for us to have a pretty awful two week stretch in October with high humidity and temps in the 80’s. 

The numbers seem to bear out that even in late September last year it was an up and down pattern. I’m not saying we don’t get a miserable stretch in October, but we only had 3 days last September with highs in the 60s and none were consecutive.

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