Hurricane Earl

[MJO812]

This is looking more and more of a fish

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is looking more and more of a fish

Assuming GFS is close, it should be nice to look at on satellite.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon finding Earl a bit more organized this afternoon, with an extrapolated pressure of 999.2mb. Looks like a tighter center as well that has moved under the convective burst. Not bad for a first pass. 

[WxWatcher007]

The structure of this system is leaps and bounds better than it was 24-48 hours ago. Recon finding higher FL winds and a continued center pressure drop on that latest pass. Euro and GFS gets this to a hurricane in a few days after it makes the right turn. 

[cptcatz]

56 knot wind and 998 mb on this pass. Really outperforming what every model has been showing. 

[WxWatcher007]

We have radar out of PR and recon is in the air. 

[Superstorm93]

Early is looking increasingly likely to become a strong hurricane over the next several days. Should help rack up some ACE as it heads OTS. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like recon is having communication issues.

[Superstorm93]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like recon is having communication issues.

Data is starting to backfill now. Center has reformed under the deep convection. 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Data is starting to backfill now. Center has reformed under the deep convection. 

 

 

Thanks. It looks like you can see it getting pulled back under the deeper convection on radar which is pretty cool. I wonder if it’s going to be able to sustain with shear nearby. 

[Chinook]

some breezes in the US Virgin Islands. The radar loop shows weak rotation in the northeast sector shown here.

[Floydbuster]

Earl is now expected to be atleast a Cat 3, so we'll probably be outpacing 2013 with a major cane atleast.

[Wmsptwx]

Fish storm 

[GaWx]

 Here we go again with the EPS. On the 12z, 5 of 51 (10%) hit the US as hurricanes 9/13-16 (2 FL 9/13 and 9/14), 2 hit NC (9/14 and 9/16), and 1 hits ME (9/14). Also, a few others are close.

 On the 18Z GFS, 2 of 31 (6%) hit the US as a H on 9/14 (1-NC, 1-VA).

 This is mainly for the record as it is just a longshot for a US hit as opposed to a concern at this time. However, it may be a bigger threat for the Canadian Maritimes. Also, Bermuda may need to watch this. 

[shaggy]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here we go again with the EPS. On the 12z, 5 of 51 (10%) hit the US as hurricanes 9/13-16 (2 FL 9/13 and 9/14), 2 hit NC (9/14 and 9/16), and 1 hits ME (9/14). Also, a few others are close.

 On the 18Z GFS, 2 of 31 (6%) hit the US as a H on 9/14 (1-NC, 1-VA).

 This is mainly for the record as it is just a longshot for a US hit as opposed to a concern at this time. However, it may be a bigger threat for the Canadian Maritimes. Also, Bermuda may need to watch this. 

I noticed that slower camp on the gefs left it behind and turned it west again. It would be something to watch in real time if he is slower to lift out than modeled. That would be a nod to those ensemble members but it's not something thats likely to happen.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

I noticed that slower camp on the gefs left it behind and turned it west again. It would be something to watch in real time if he is slower to lift out than modeled. That would be a nod to those ensemble members but it's not something thats likely to happen.

 After posting that, I compared the 18Z EPS 132-144 tracks to the 12Z EPS 138-150 tracks. This suggests that the 18Z would very likely have had fewer, if any, threaten the US. So, it may be just another one of those fluky EPS runs like we had a couple of days ago.

[WxWatcher007]

Funny how quiet it is knowing this one is likely staying OTS. 

After being a middling disappointment for so long, it's actually looking much better and resilient structurally. NHC forecasts it to be our first major of the season. 

[WxWatcher007]

990mb extrapolated? That can’t be right lol. The last VDM was 998mb.

[WxWatcher007]

Sure enough, dropsonde confirms a pressure of ~991mb. That’s an impressive drop between passes.

[Normandy]

Some kind of re-organization going on with the MLC and LLC.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Some kind of re-organization going on with the MLC and LLC.

Per recon, the center has aligned. The shear hasn’t been enough to stop this progression so I’d be surprised if we didn’t get more short term intensification now that the vortex is fully upright. 

[WxWatcher007]

Should be a hurricane tomorrow morning. We’ll see if the alignment of the center will spur RI.

[WxWatcher007]

Found a way to fall apart (temporarily) overnight. Can’t make this stuff up lol.

[jbenedet]

The guidance consensus is pretty damn boring on how Earl is just ejected ENE. I believe there’s too much certainty being placed in this. If you dig into the modeling a bit you can reveal this facade though. The individual members of the GEFS does just that.  I mean, ots, sure *eventually*. That’s the forecast right now. But I’m seeing a storm that’s weaker than expected this hour, a fujiwara interaction off the mid Atlantic coast and a Greenland block potentially building over top before Earl is kicked east. If just one of these 3 elements breaks in favor of less progressive, Earl is not disappearing in the next 5 days.

A weaker storm does raise the odds that the fujiwara acts less of a kick and more of a phase, so there’s that. It also mitigates risk of Earl finding a subtle ridge break before the block builds over top. 

Putting impact affects aside, I believe Earl is gonna be kicking around in our region of the Atlantic a lot longer than these op runs are illustrating. Maybe it means little in the end, but at least something to monitor with interest.

[WxWatcher007]

At the very least, it'll be great for ACE. Agreed. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I just want to mention that Earl is far from a lock to become a MH. It has a VERY short window to attain major status, will be doing so at an unusually high latitude to support a major, and will need several complex interactions in a quasi favorable environment for this to happen. I think the storm becomes a strong hurricane but I would expect guidance to tick down a few notches before earl gets into its intensifying phase, due to a complex upper level environment and marginal SSTs and shear conditions. 

[Normandy]

5 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The guidance consensus is pretty damn boring on how Earl is just ejected ENE. I believe there’s too much certainty being placed in this. If you dig into the modeling a bit you can reveal this facade though. The individual members of the GEFS does just that.  I mean, ots, sure *eventually*. That’s the forecast right now. But I’m seeing a storm that’s weaker than expected this hour, a fujiwara interaction off the mid Atlantic coast and a Greenland block potentially building over top before Earl is kicked east. If just one of these 3 elements breaks in favor of less progressive, Earl is not disappearing in the next 5 days.

A weaker storm does raise the odds that the fujiwara acts less of a kick and more of a phase, so there’s that. It also mitigates risk of Earl finding a subtle ridge break before the block builds over top. 

Putting impact affects aside, I believe Earl is gonna be kicking around in our region of the Atlantic a lot longer than these op runs are illustrating. Maybe it means little in the end, but at least something to monitor with interest.

Great post.  I had the same thoughts but could never have spoken them like a pro.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is back out there and it looks like Earl has recovered. I will say, this one has been resilient in the face of some awful environmental conditions.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m late to it, but Earl is a hurricane based on recon data. Dropsonde and SFMR show it. Not made official yet by the NHC.

[Amped]

A hurricane, just not a pretty looking one.