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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2022 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I would pay money for the GFS 384hr fantasy storm setup a week before Xmas 

 

Same here, 17th is my bday so I'd kill for a storm over that weekend. Set up looks a lot better than the first half of the month with more ridging out west, not perfect by any means but enough to potentially do the job. Still think the following week will be the one to watch though as the ridging out west looks to only improve from there. Now just have to hope it moves forward in time and doesn't keep getting pushed back. 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

EPS with a good look entering the holiday festivities crunch time throw that can in the recycle bin.

 

Deja Vu of last year already. Watching the EPS show a stellar pattern after 300 hours, everyone getting bricked up about it, then watching the EPS caving to the GEFS under 150 hrs is pure comedy honestly. If we kick the can enough times and are patient enough, eventually we will cash in. It might be the coming week, mid month, late month, or even Jan or Feb. But im optimistic with the blocking we are seeing at HL that we will get our chances and will reap the rewards of being patient. ...eventually. i still like dec 10-20 window. I know thats a broad range but with all the changes happening under the nao block, we just cant know.

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7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Really need the PNA to pop positive. Things look good in the NAO/AO domain beginning now, but until we get some ridging in the west we're going to be stuck in the cold/dry > warm up/wet cycle. 

Living in Phoenix now, so I like this post. A ridge in the right place gives me my 75 to 80 degrees, and you guys good snow. Many times the southwest (LA and Phoenix) broiled while we were getting dumped on.

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22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Living in Phoenix now, so I like this post. A ridge in the right place gives me my 75 to 80 degrees, and you guys good snow. Many times the southwest (LA and Phoenix) broiled while we were getting dumped on.

Congrats, Voyager! I know you’ll enjoy your new climate :sun:

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34 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Spiked eggnog or is this Accuweathers December outlook?

More importantly what does family member think or weather bug? It's important and critical information.

Dec far outlook forecast for North Wales from Accuweather. Seems decent, no blowtorch.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-wales/19454/december-weather/340464?year=2022 

BTW: Chrome spellchecker corrected me on accuweather and it should be be "weatherco*k"...interesting.

c.jpg

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I take full accountability for the extended delay in the favorable pattern change. Ever since I tuned up my snowblower Thursday the ens have been delaying things. On a good note, the thing runs clean as new and all my Christmas decorating outdoors was finished at 1030pm last night. The lights look amazing in the umm rain :blink:

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Rainfall so far is up to 0.28" - rain should end from the west by around noon. Sunny and colder tomorrow before milder again with showers for mid-week before the pattern change to colder looks to take hold by the end of the work week. As that respected meteorologist who shall not be names says....delayed but not denied!!
The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1998. Record low is 9 degrees from 1976. Daily rain record is 1.12" from 1905. Daily snow record is the 5.2" that fell today back in 1907.
image.png.177c79ff833808339b78bd0da802428d.png
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17 hours ago, Voyager said:

Living in Phoenix now, so I like this post. A ridge in the right place gives me my 75 to 80 degrees, and you guys good snow. Many times the southwest (LA and Phoenix) broiled while we were getting dumped on.

You are definitely in Heat Miser's kingdom (although further north up in the mountains where Flagstaff is, they do get frozen precip)! :lol:

I ended up with a high of 47 Tues, and of 46 on the last day of November after a low of 37.  And December did start out December-like with highs/lows of 41/30 and 44/26, along with some dps that were in the 20s.

This morning's low was a big non-diurnal change with a 43 just after midnight and the temp rising slowly ever since.

So far with the initial round of rain pretty much moving towards the coast, I got 0.49" from it and it's currently an overcast and misty 55 with dp 54.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And whats with these 20 foot skeletons people still have in their front yards from Halloween? Saw like 3 yesterday with Santa hats on them.

They symbolize what inflation has done to Santa I reckon, just like smaller portions of everything.

 

 

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The sun has peaked out here a few times last hour otherwise cloudy 0.52" of rain today 56 degrees dewpoint 53 pressure 29.78 winds SW 25-35 typical weather associated with the La Nina Lakes Cutters.  I am trying to be patient, but I have seen this song and dance before.  My theory is to blame the warm Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico Waters.  Let's see what happens between December 9th to 15th for further clues if winter will show up this year or not. 

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