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44 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.40” at the wantagh meso. For once the south shore wasn’t shut out. Big waves tomorrow from fiona!


.

I’m at JB6 right now, and there’s some big rollers already.

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A strong cold front moved across the region during the morning and early afternoon bringing showers and thundershowers. In response, temperatures began falling even as the sun returned. Tomorrow, many parts of the region will experience their coldest temperatures so far this season.

Temperatures will warm up during the second half of the weekend. However, in part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions.

During Saturday, Hurricane Fiona will likely make landfall in Atlantic Canada. With a contribution from the ongoing marine heatwave, Fiona will likely do so as a category 2 hurricane. Canada's lowest barometric pressure on record could be challenged.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.341 today.

On September 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.336 (RMM). The September 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.365 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

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The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 


97777C01-D486-4807-A534-88E7AA16CB4B.thumb.png.472acecf88a5bb045caf9f708e6b5ab0.png

 

25D9056F-6AC5-4C92-8BAD-F8D59E52A59F.thumb.png.972860e2cff7ffb2f080fba8aeb8ddd0.png

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The last 8 days of September are averaging  63degs.(56/70) or -3.

Month to date is  72.6[+1.9].         September should end at  70.0[+0.8].

Reached 76 here yesterday before Noon.    Then fell to 63 and then back up to 72 in the late PM.

51*(57%RH) here at 7am.        53* at 9am.     57* at Noon.       60* at 1:30pm.      62* at 3pm.      63* at 4pm.

As for 98L:

1663869600-sMFXeyUgQzo.png

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 


97777C01-D486-4807-A534-88E7AA16CB4B.thumb.png.472acecf88a5bb045caf9f708e6b5ab0.png

 

25D9056F-6AC5-4C92-8BAD-F8D59E52A59F.thumb.png.972860e2cff7ffb2f080fba8aeb8ddd0.png

Gfs just rots it in the southeast 

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north.  So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not. 


97777C01-D486-4807-A534-88E7AA16CB4B.thumb.png.472acecf88a5bb045caf9f708e6b5ab0.png

 

25D9056F-6AC5-4C92-8BAD-F8D59E52A59F.thumb.png.972860e2cff7ffb2f080fba8aeb8ddd0.png

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.

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Morning thoughts…

Today sunny but unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 67°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

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12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.

Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.
 

C51C0D72-FBD3-42A5-8FEB-210004CD5C09.thumb.png.267e13efa4db589ebb803bc1f0785938.png

4D50B08B-3499-4039-BF56-8DC4EE15CA7D.thumb.png.cd29b28153f8bdffd493d76a0fa6ca9c.png

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I can’t remember the last time we had one of these fall fronts. This was very well forecasted from last week on the guidance 

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-01 (2018) 09-02 (2017) 110
Mean 05-16 09-28 134
Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-18 (2021) 164
2021 05-30 (2021) 48 10-18 (2021) 46 140
2020 05-21 (2020) 47 09-19 (2020) 48 120
2019 05-15 (2019) 45 09-19 (2019) 49 126
2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164
2017 05-14 (2017) 44 09-02 (2017) 49 110
2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2015 06-02 (2015) 49 10-02 (2015) 48 121
2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150
2013 05-27 (2013) 46 09-15 (2013) 48 110
2012 05-11 (2012) 48 09-25 (2012) 48 136
2011 05-06 (2011) 44 10-02 (2011) 49 148
2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-03 (2010) 49 142
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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. 
 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 05-01 (2018) 09-02 (2017) 110
Mean 05-16 09-28 134
Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-18 (2021) 164
2021 05-30 (2021) 48 10-18 (2021) 46 140
2020 05-21 (2020) 47 09-19 (2020) 48 120
2019 05-15 (2019) 45 09-19 (2019) 49 126
2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164
2017 05-14 (2017) 44 09-02 (2017) 49 110
2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2015 06-02 (2015) 49 10-02 (2015) 48 121
2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150
2013 05-27 (2013) 46 09-15 (2013) 48 110
2012 05-11 (2012) 48 09-25 (2012) 48 136
2011 05-06 (2011) 44 10-02 (2011) 49 148
2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-03 (2010) 49 142

The new climate normal 

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