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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 72°

The week will end with cool temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.5°; 15-Year: 72.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.5°

Dangerous and potentially deadly Ian will make Florida landfall tonight. 

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Even though temperatures have cooled off over the last week, areas from EWR to LGA continue to average near 70° for the month. This has been a common occurrence since 2010. But at least we will step down from all the record warmth in recent months. So less warm is the new cool as the late month cooldown prevented another top 10 warmest month.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1961 74.5 0
2 2005 73.5 0
3 2015 73.4 0
4 2021 72.5 0
5 2016 71.8 0
- 1971 71.8 0
6 2010 71.6 0
7 1959 71.5 0
8 2018 71.4 0
9 2011 71.2 0
10 1973 71.0 0
- 1931 71.0 0
11 2022 70.9 3
- 2017 70.9 0
12 2019 70.8 0
- 1980 70.8 0
13 1968 70.7 0
14 1983 70.6 0
- 1970 70.6 0
15 2002 70.5 0
16 1998 70.3 0
17 1985 70.2 0
18 2007 70.1 0


 

 

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Down to 42 here and on the way to low 70s today and likely the same Thursday.  Truly gorgeous out.  Looks dry till showers or some of Ian's remnant moisture may or may not get north of BWI/ACY area this weekend later Sat (10/1) and Sun (10/2).  Beyond that cold front sweeps through next Tue (10/4) clearing any leftovers of Ian.  Beyond that we ridging is building east by later next week and looking warmer than normals by about the 9th.

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it.


F3AD505D-0058-40EC-8CC4-EE76C512169F.thumb.png.dee9a194ac1f81b72b58cf0e2519fd10.png

C193E213-889C-46B8-8CB8-58B598305511.thumb.png.4300c67af2bc0512ff63ea9d6024f710.png

The brunt of the rainfall will be on Saturday correct?

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HPC rather aggressive with rainfall for most of this forum with 1-2" for long suffering south shore of L.I.  Northwest NJ on northeastward with much less.  I'm thinking not as robust as they are showing but lots of time to watch.  SNJ of course has best chances for heavy to perhaps some excessive amounts.

RAINFALL.jpg

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Anybody care to comment on the 00z GFS solution for Ian? Seems to drive the remnant low inland over the NC/VA area. Then it appears to spurn a secondary low off the coast on Sunday, and then either another one on Tuesday or it's actual the remnant low that strengthens off the coast? 00z Euro seems to do something similar.

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The last 3 days of September are averaging  61degs.(54/68) or -4.

Month to date is  70.7[+0.9].        September should end at  69.7[+0.5].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today :  67-71, wind w. to n., m. sunny-late clouds, 55 tomorrow AM.

Almost there now:       HWRF is a little further north---say 30mi. south of Tampa.

1664366400-tBmRzKPgdHU.png

1664712000-Wum8RGHr3Yo.png

HEY CHEATER!......Bring My Baby Back...................

1664928000-ffzUK6qI6lY.png

54*(78%RH) here at 7am.       56* at 9am.     58* at 10am.       63* at Noon.       Reached 70* at 4pm.      68* at 6pm.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it.


F3AD505D-0058-40EC-8CC4-EE76C512169F.thumb.png.dee9a194ac1f81b72b58cf0e2519fd10.png

C193E213-889C-46B8-8CB8-58B598305511.thumb.png.4300c67af2bc0512ff63ea9d6024f710.png

 

2/6/10

:cory::weenie:

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The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. At least some showers are likely this weekend. Parts of the region, especially central New Jersey southward could see some steadier and perhaps heavier rain.

Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

This afternoon, Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida's southwest coast with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Ian is the 4th hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or above to make U.S. landfall during the last 5 years. Michael (2018), Laura (2020), and Ida (2021) are the others. No other five-year period saw so many powerful hurricanes make U.S. landfall. Ian will continue to move across Florida tonight. Heavy rain and high winds will continue to inflict damage.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +25.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.845 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.550 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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