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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen the CCB slam SE areas including the Cape and this sort of mini slot develops in srn RI and into extreme SE CT. Maybe into areas west of New Bedford too. It’s definitely the dryslot in the mid levels, but sometimes the CCB from 850-700 can mask that off to the east. Sure maybe the prime DGZ dries out, but you have a firehose of moisture and small to medium sized flakes there. 
 

It doesn’t happen in every storm, but besides the March 2013 event, January 2005 and I remember January 2011 was an issue there too. 
 

It’s not due to downsloping, but perhaps maybe a standing wave that can develop if conditions favor. That’s what happened in March 2013 to the extreme. Big isentropic lift or upglide in ern areas. Sinking air to the point that sun sun was visible in RI, and then upglide again in CT. There was also a s/w in NY state that likely aided the totals near Kevin. 

Sometimes I feel like the longitude at which storms most rapidly deepen south of us plays a role. You start seeing that dryslot wrap in while it’s still over E LI into S RI but by the time it migrates eastward, the rapidly deepening midlevel centers are collapsing everything E and SE and it fills in by the time it reaches, say, TAN to PYM corridor. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes I feel like the longitude at which storms most rapidly deepen south of us plays a role. You start seeing that dryslot wrap in while it’s still over E LI into S RI but by the time it migrates eastward, the rapidly deepening midlevel centers are collapsing everything E and SE and it fills in by the time it reaches, say, TAN to PYM corridor. 

That makes a lot of synoptic sense too.  Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That makes a lot of synoptic sense too.  Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another.

Will and I talked about this before, but the Jan 05 blizzard was just like he described. I remember looking at radar and being like “ummm that’s getting too close for comfort..” All of the sudden the precip shield exploded into an intense CCB band. One of the most classic Miller B representations on radar from start to finish. 

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will and I talked about this before, but the Jan 05 blizzard was just like he described. I remember looking at radar and being like “ummm that’s getting too close for comfort..” All of the sudden the precip shield exploded into an intense CCB band. One of the most classic Miller B representations on radar from start to finish. 

Very enlightening climo discussion.

Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots.  Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area.  Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE.  Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west.  Multiple reasons overlap.

There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum.  QPF and snow.  I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen first hand how variable it is in TAN. 

Bob and I try to tell ‘em. It’s a big area. Since I’ve been on these forums there have been numerous instances where he is raining or mixing and Matt (butterfish) and I are snowing.

I live like 6 or so miles from Stonehill College and it can even be a huge difference from here to there.

Once you start getting up to this area, any additional miles north or northwest from the ocean can pay huge dividends

From my house now I can be to Sharon in about 10 to 12 mins, but that area does much better than me. Slightly more NW and slightly elevated.

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bob and I try to tell ‘em. It’s a big area. Since I’ve been on these forums there have been numerous instances where he is raining or mixing and Matt (butterfish) and I are snowing.

I live like 6 or so miles from Stonehill College and it can even be a huge difference from here to there.

Once you start getting up to this area, any additional miles north or northwest from the ocean can pay huge dividends

From my house now I can be to Sharon in about 10 to 12 mins, but that area does much better than me. Slightly more NW and slightly elevated.

I’m on the NW edge of that gradient in Holliston. It rapidly decreases southeast of me. Between here and like Wrentham or Plainville is only like 15 miles but the difference can be night and day. Snow cover often rapidly decreases. Even between here and Norfolk/Walpole…though Walpole does a little better since they have some sneaky elevation. 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Very enlightening climo discussion.

Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots.  Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area.  Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE.  Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west.  Multiple reasons overlap.

There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum.  QPF and snow.  I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD.

That was nice to see in Jan this year. Our good friends near UUU got lit up. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very warm week shaping up starting tomorrow. Thursday has a good signal of damaging wind event with the front , even kind of a derecho look to it at this juncture. Wiz totally missed this one . Then finally a cool airmass late next week and weekend .

Maybe some 70s. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very warm week shaping up starting tomorrow. Thursday has a good signal of damaging wind event with the front , even kind of a derecho look to it at this juncture. Wiz totally missed this one . Then finally a cool airmass late next week and weekend .

Wiz said maybe Thursday.

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